Initial outlook from a few global models indicate a build-up of rains along India's southwest coast from the next week.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) also has projected a similar outlook, even showing a core of rains sitting just off the Kerala coast from mid-week next week.
The global models expect these rains to get organised and pick up strength from May 22, likely leading to the onset of southwest monsoon.
The monsoon normally hitches a ride on a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, an upper level wave that triggers formation of clouds and rains at the ground level.
Statistical and dynamic models tracking the MJO wave differed in their outlook, with the former suggesting initiation of the wave from May 22.
The latter seemed to suggest that the wave may not amplify to a level required to trigger the onset before May 31.
The onset phase is likely to be devoid of formation of any rogue cyclone as has been the case on three occasions in the immediate past, leaving the monsoon current astray and affecting its progress over the mainland.
No models surveyed on Thursday seemed to factor in such a scenario, notwithstanding the build-up of an area of sustained convection to the south of west-central Arabian Sea from next week. Meanwhile, the rains over east India sustained during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning with fairly widespread rainfall being reported from West Bengal and Sikkim. It was scattered over Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Bihar. Elsewhere, it was scattered over south interior Karnataka and isolated over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, north Rajasthan, Vidarbha and Kerala.
Satellite imagery on Thursday afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of northwest Jammu and Kashmir and north Andaman Sea.
Low to medium clouds were seen over parts of western Himalayan region, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, the Northeastern States and peninsular India.
A feeble western disturbance sat over Jammu and Kashmir, and is expected to continue to affect western Himalayan region and parts of plains of northwest India until Saturday.
The system is accompanied by an induced upper air cyclonic circulation that lay parked over northwest Rajasthan.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over east Uttar Pradesh persisted, from which a trough originated and extended up to Mizoram across Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.
This trough has been allowing the transport of moisture from the Bay of Bengal to the Northeastern States and adjoining east India, causing precipitation.
Meanwhile, heat wave conditions have descended over isolated pockets of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.