Sugar output for the 2013-14 season starting October may decline by about 5 per cent to 23.7 million tonnes over the current year’s 25 million tonnes, according to early estimates by the Indian Sugar Mills’ Association (ISMA).
The projected decline is mainly on account of a 1.5 per cent drop in cane acreage for the crushing season starting October 2013 on lower planting mainly in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. However, an all-time record planting by farmers in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest cane growing State, is unlikely to offset the impact of decline in the Southern states.
The Indian Sugar Mills’ Association, based on satellite images in June and field visits by its research team, expects cane acreage for the 2013-14 sugar year to be 51.50 lakh ha, about 1.52 per cent lower than last year’s 52.30 lakh ha. The estimates are based on the current crop growth, rainfall patter, situation in reservoirs and input applications on the crop, among others.
The cane area in Uttar Pradesh is expected to be 3.1 per cent higher at 25 lakh ha, despite pending cane payments of about Rs 4,000 crore to farmers. The substantially higher sugar cane prices in comparison to other competing crops in UP such as paddy and wheat is seen luring more farmers to the crop. The other sub-tropical States including Haryana, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh have also shown an upward trend in sugarcane acreage over last year, ISMA said.
However, the drought in Maharashtra last year could shrink the cane area by 12.5 per cent to around 8.2 lakh ha against last year’s 9.4 lakh ha. The impact of last year’s lesser rainfall available for the 15-18 month crop and pre-seasonal crop plantation actually impacted the overall acreage in 2013-14. Similarly, in Karnataka the acreage is expected to be lower by 8 per cent at 3.9 lakh ha for the 2013-14 season.
However, the worst affected among the tropical States is Tamil Nadu, where the cane area may decline by 16 per cent at 2.7 lakh ha over last year’s 3.2 lakh ha. This decline is due mainly to poor rains last year.
The reported sugarcane acreage of ISMA is, however, about 8 per cent higher as compared to the Government’s latest estimates. The difference might be due to the fact that the Ministry of Agriculture’s reported figures are based on ongoing field surveys in a couple of States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and other sub-tropical zones, where the crushing season in 2012-13 started later than usual and therefore, the survey is still not complete.
ISMA expects the opening sugar balance for the next season starting October at 80 lakh tonnes, about 20 lakh tonnes more than the normative opening balance that the Government would like to have. The sugar body is expected to review the estimates based on the August satellite imagery ahead of the 2013-14 crushing season.