The monsoon has thrown up a surprise in the form of a low-pressure area over west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan from what appears to be an intense atmospheric churn in the region.

Three atmospheric systems – cyclonic circulations over west Rajasthan and Saurashtra and an incoming western disturbance – have interacted with each other to trigger the ‘low.’

The western disturbance had dug into the northeast Arabian seawaters already whipped up by the ‘low’ over Saurashtra to supply incremental monsoon flows and moisture into the ‘low.’

Heavy rain

The result was heavy to very heavy rainfall over west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan-Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, south interior Karnataka and Kerala during the 24 hours ending Friday morning.

Rain for Madhya Maharashtra is particularly welcome since this Met subdivision, along with Marathwada in Maharashtra, has been witnessing dry conditions for quite some time.

This ‘low’ may weaken over the next couple of days and lie as an elongated trough along the breadth of central India.

Fresh ‘low’

But it would only make the way a clear for another low-pressure area likely emerging over North Bay of Bengal early next week.

The India Met Department has already set up a watch for a preparatory cyclonic circulation to set up a perch over the basin as early as tomorrow.

The resultant ‘low’ is shown as strengthening over coastal Odisha and likely growing into a depression. Around the same time, enhanced monsoon flows across the Arabian Sea would spark off activity over south-west Rajasthan and adjoining north Gujarat.

In what looks like a rare show of strength in the area by a peaking monsoon, the Met sees a second ‘low’ spinning up here and strengthening.

Deficit at 6%

It will bring heavy rain not just on the Indian side of the international border but also over east Pakistan to the other.

The US Climate Prediction Centre has forecast that an elongated wet spell would prevail over Pakistan, northern India and into South-East Asia during the next week. It sees these conditions extend likely extending into early August.

On Friday, seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole was in deficit at six per cent. South had the highest deficit of 13 per cent; central India 10 per cent; and east and north-east India, five per cent each. North-West continued to show a surplus at six per cent.

Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific Climate Centre at Busan, South Korea, came out with an outlook on Friday suggesting rain-deficient August and September for India.

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