ANALYSIS. The cascading effects of delayed rains

The initial forecasts of an above-normal monsoon this year have, no doubt, raised expectations all round, but the timely onset and the spatial distribution of the rainfall across the four-month period is crucial for a better upcoming kharif season.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast that the South-West monsoon this year will be 106 per cent of the long-period average of 89 cm. Private agencies Skymet and Weather Risk Management Services have also predicted above-normal rainfall. Unlike last year, the forecasts made by both the public and private agencies are almost similar this year.

However, a delay of about 10 days in the onset over the Kerala coast, as predicted by some experts, could trigger concerns in certain quarters. A delayed monsoon would not only prolong the summer, but would also have a cascading effect on farm sector operations. A clearer picture on the onset will emerge towards the end of May.

“It is too early to predict, but any delay in the arrival of the monsoon would be a cause for concern,” said Ajitesh Mullick, Associate Vice President – Agri Research, at Religare Commodities. A delay would mean lower rainfall, and farm sector activities, right from sowing to harvesting, would get delayed, he adds.

On Tuesday, in the immediate aftermath of the IMD announcement, most of the farm futures on the NCDEX were in the red. But the trend was reversed on Wednesday with most back in the green. Market sentiment for most farm commodities is expected to remain firm on supply issues and till the monsoon arrives / end-May forecasts.

“We expect a firm trend in most of the counters as exports have also picked up with the falling rupee,” Mullick added.

After two successive years of deficient rainfall, the forecast of a good monsoon has brought a sense of relief even though the maximum temperatures are hovering above normal levels by 2-6 degrees centigrade across most parts of the country.

Water levels in 91 major reservoirs have dipped to a fourth of their full storage capacities and are lower than the 10-year average, triggering drought in about 10 States.

“The timing of the onset does not matter much. What is crucial is there should be good rains in July and August, especially for the agriculture sector,” said DK Joshi, chief economist at CRISIL. “Ideally, the rains should be well distributed across the four month period, but that hardly happens. Good rains in July and August are crucial for agriculture and related sectors,” he added.

Also, the prediction of more rains during the latter half of the four-month monsoon period, during August and September, calls for the government to be prepared in dealing with the situation. September is likely to be the wettest month this monsoon.

The forecast of a good monsoon prompted noted farm scientist MS Swaminathan to call for preparing a ‘Good Weather Code’, which involves mobilisation of good quality seed resources and soil nutrients to take advantage of the rainfall.

From a nutritional and climate resilience point of view, pulses and millets that require less water could be a good choice, Swaminathan had said, emphasising that the Good Weather Code should be prepared at the panchayat level this month.

The Union government recently said that the country had adequate seeds and fertilisers to meet the upcoming kharif sowing demand. The country has surplus stocks of seeds of key kharif crops such as paddy, maize, soyabean and cotton.