Thundershowers may break lull, return to North-West next week

Recorded rainfall for the country as a whole during March has moderated to 197 per cent as on March 18 (from 237 per cent previously) but is expected to consolidate further towards the month-end.

There is a lull as of now in western disturbance activity, but this is expected to revive from early next week, according to an India Met Department outlook.

A predominant majority (27 out of 36) of the Met subdivisions falls under the ‘excess or normal’ rainfall category. Only exceptions are those along the east coast of the country, save Tamil Nadu.

The deficits are worst in Odisha (72 per cent); Assam-Meghalaya (88 per cent); and Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (83 per cent).

Lakshadweep (54 per cent); plains of West Bengal (47 per cent); coastal Andhra Pradesh (45 per cent); and Jharkhand (28 per cent) fared slightly better.

The rain clouds from the east-bound western disturbances as well as those formed by the interaction of these disturbances with moist winds from the Bay of Bengal seem to have bypassed these regions.

Meanwhile on Friday, a feeble western disturbance has called in over north Pakistan and neighbourhood. It has spun off an offspring cyclonic circulation that was located above west Rajasthan.

This will be followed by another stronger disturbance from Monday night (March 23), which is when the cooler weather system rolls over the warming plains of north-west India to trigger thundershowers. India Met has forecast rain/thundershowers at many places of the western Himalayas and isolated over the plains of north-west India from Wednesday (March 25).

Thundershowers may also spread out to Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Maharashtra, signalling the possibility of interactive showers from the western disturbance and an easterly wave.

The north-eastern States as well as parts of extreme south too may witness occasional showers during this phase.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points to the arrival of a third western disturbance in succession by March 27/28.