Rain or thundershowers, though not heavy, may return to an already wet northwest India, including western parts of Jammu and Kashmir, during the rest of the week.
This will result as a prevailing well-marked ‘low’ over central India extends its influence as it seeks to take a detour to the plains of northwest India.
The rain bands would find it easy to trigger thundershowers over a surcharged atmosphere in the region churned up like never before during the last week-end.
Passing western disturbances would only help further charge up the atmosphere and set off rain or thundershowers along the hills and adjoining plains.
Violent weather in these parts had set up a calamitous situation in Jammu and Kashmir, creating the worst monsoon-led floods and landslides in over the six decades of its history.
That it should have happened during the withdrawal phase of the monsoon makes it break with the known history and pattern in a frighteningly significant manner.
Repeat of history
An even more catastrophic scenario had panned out in neighbouring Uttarakhand last year but was timed towards the onset phase of the monsoon.
This goes only to highlight the growing unpredictability in monsoon behaviour in which concentrated high-intensity rainfall is becoming the norm rather than exception, irrespective of time, space or geography.
Meanwhile, the monsoon-driving well-marked ‘low’ was located over southwest Madhya Pradesh and north Madhya Maharashtra late last night.
The connecting trough passed through north Arabian Sea, south Gujarat, north Mahrashtra, south Madhya Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, and south Odisha.
This puts the entire south Gujarat, Mumbai and Konkan-Goa belt come face to face with a blast of southwesterly monsoon flows pulled in by the ‘low.’
Rain alert
Rain warning sounded for the region by India Met Department is as follows:
Today, Sept 9, Tuesday : Heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extreme heavy falls over west Madhya Pradesh; east Gujarat; and Vidarbha.
Heavy to very rainfall over Konkan-Goa; Madhya Maharashtra; and Marathawada.
Heavy rainfall over east Rajashtan; east Madhya Pradesh; Saurashtra; Kutch; coastal Karnataka; Himachal Pradesh; and Uttarakhand.
Tomorrow, Sept 10, Wednesday: Heavy to very rainfall with isolated extreme falls over Konkan-Goa; east Gujarat; and west Madhya Pradesh.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall over Vidarbha, Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra.
Heavy rainfall over east Rajasthan; Saurashtra; Kutch; Himachal Pradesh; and Uttarakhand.