Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest producer of sugarcane, may see a drop in yield and recovery rate in central and eastern regions after heavy rains affected the crops in many places leading to severe water logging in the field. However, the extent of damage can be assessed only after rains completely stop, said industry officials and experts.
“The estimate in the current season (October-September) was 12.05 million tonnes (mt) of sugar (including the quantity to be diverted for ethanol), but recent rains have changed the situation and though there will be a drop, it is too early to estimate now since rain is still continuing,” said an industry official.
Sugarcane production in the State this year has been estimated at 176.71 mt — marginally down from last year’s 177.43 mt.
Echoing a similar view, Bakshi Ram, who is credited with the development of the highest yield and recovery variety sugarcane CO-0238, said: “The adverse impact on yield will be less compared to recovery, but definitely waterlogging at this time is not good for the crop. Besides, there is also the risk of red rot disease, even though its spread will be slower due to low temperature.”
Raining cats & dogs
The State received 53 per cent, 43 per cent and 41 per cent below-normal rains during June, July and August, respectively. But in September, the rainfall was 31 per cent above normal and during October 1-10, it is nearly 8-times more than the normal 129.9 mm. The western region has received 127.8 mm or 992 per cent more than normal and east UP 131.4 mm or 557 per cent higher than average in first 10 days of October.
The flooding has come late this year and once the water recedes, the situation will be better, especially for plant cane, said another expert. However, some low-lying regions in Bahraich and Balrampur will be impacted as water receding takes time, he said.
Some traders are of the view that the latest rain will improve the yield. “Delay in monsoon withdrawal, recent rounds of rain in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh will result in a delay in the beginning of the sugar season. But the latest rain will give more yield and recovery and there is nothing negative as sugarcane has not fallen. There is no reason to fear low production. New sugar across India will start getting supply on or before November 10 everywhere, subject to monsoon withdrawal by October 18,” said Praful Vithalani, proprietor of Mumbai-based trading firm Jagjivan Keshavji & Co.
On crushing, sugar mills in west UP may start by first week November, the usual time whereas central UP may see delayed start by 10 days, industry experts said. Millers may want to delay the crushing to reduce losses, they said.