The early arrivals of kharif crops in mandis are up in most of the commodities except non-basmati, thanks to a well distributed rainfall and timely departure of the monsoon after covering the entire country before normal schedule. As inflation is a concern at many quarters, the arrivals of kharif crops will be closely watched by experts.

The arrivals of five out of six crops during September 15-30, before commencement of kharif harvesting season from October 1, are higher from year-ago, according to Agmarknet portal. While paddy (non-basmati) arrivals have shown 15 per cent lower compared to last year, green gram (moong) is higher by 20 per cent, paddy (basmati) by 299 per cent, groundnut 148 per cent, soyabean 33 per cent and urad 10 per cent more, the data show.

Monsoon

“Last year there was a delay in monsoon covering the entire country and also its withdrawal leading to delayed sowing in many parts,” said a former agriculture commissioner. This year, the situation was opposite, he added.

Monsoon this year covered the entire country six days before normal July 8, whereas last year it was on July 13. The south west monsoon started retreating from west Rajasthan on October 6 last year, which was the second-most delayed withdrawal since 1975, whereas this year it started on September 20 as against normal September 17.

The early sowing will lead to early harvesting and a clear picture about likely production will emerge around mid-November, based on market arrivals, the former commissioner said pointing to risk of crop damage as above normal rainfall has been predicted for this month.

The rainfall during October is most likely to be above normal (>115 per cent of LPA of 75.4 mm), M Mohapatra, Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD), said on September 30. Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of India except small pockets of the southern most region and northern most part of the country, he said. The IMD’s forecast map shows soyabean-growing west Madhya Pradesh and paddy-growing Chhattisgarh may experience higher rainfall in October, compared to other states.

The Government has pegged soyabean production this year to be 128.92 lakh tonnes (lt) against 129.95 lt in the previous year. The area under soyabean was 120.90 lakh hectares (lh) as of September 30, compared with 120.87 lh year-ago, Agriculture Ministry said. Production of cotton is seen at 341.9 lakh bales of 170 kg each against 312.03 lakh bales last year. Cotton and soyabean crops were damaged in many places last year due to higher rains in September-October.

Inflation

The rice production has been pegged at 104.99 million tonnes (mt), against 111.76 mt last year after acreage dipped 5 per cent to 403 lh.

The consumer food price inflation was 7.62 per cent in August, as against 3.11 per cent year-ago and high food prices have been blamed for overall retail inflation reaching to seven per cent in August, exceeding RBI’s comfort level of six per cent.

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