The US weather agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised the prospects of 2024 being the warmest year on record globally based on January-June 2024 temperatures.

In its Monthly Climate Update, NOAA raised the chance of 2024 being the warmest year globally to 59 per cent from 50 per cent last month. It said the chance of 2024 being among the top 5 warmest years is 100 per cent.

“Based on current anomalies and historical global annual temperature readings, it appears that it is virtually certain that 2024 will be a top 10 year, consistent with a strong propensity since 1988 for recent years to be initially ranked as a top 10 year,” it said.  

La Nina watch

Stating that a “La Nina Watch” has been issued, Russ Voce, Chief of Climate Monitoring and Assessment, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, and Cory Baggett Meteorologist, NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said oceanic and atmospheric observations currently reflect El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions.

“La Niña is favored to develop during August-October (70 per cent chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79 per cent chance during November-January),” NOAA said.  

The US weather agency said global Land and ocean temperatures were higher by +1.29°C, the warmest for January-June on record dating back to 1895. 

In June the global land and ocean temperatures were the warmest for June on record. Temperatures were up by +1.22°C. June global temperature (+1.75°C) and ocean temperature (+0.98°C) were also the warmest on record dating back to 1850.

23.2% of India under drought

Meanwhile, the National Centers of Environmental Information said in its global drought overview that 23.2 per cent of India was under drought in June, albeit less than in May. Drought conditions were confirmed over northern, eastern, and southwestern parts of India.

Satellite observation showed low soil moisture, as well as low groundwater, across much of  northern India, it said, adding that June was warmer than normal across most of Asia. 

Last week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said climate models suggest that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific are likely to continue to cool for at least the next 2 months. 

“From September, 4 of 7 climate models suggest SSTs are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, and the remaining 3 suggest the possibility of SSTs reaching La Niña levels (below −0.8 °C),” it said.

Favourable conditions

 BoM, which was among the first global agencies to issue “La Nina Watch”, however, said it does not guarantee La Niña development. “... only that there is about an equal chance of either ENSO remaining neutral or a La Niña developing,” the Australian weather agency said.

Earlier this week, the APEC Climate Center said  conditions are favourable for the emergence of La Nina, a cold event that brings more rains to Asia particularly India, during August 2024-January 2025

“The APCC ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert suggests ‘La Nina Watch’. Nino3.4 index is expected to be -0.6℃ for August 2024 and then gradually decrease to -0.7℃ and persist from September 2024 to January 2025,” it said in its seasonal outlook.

The APEC Climate Center has predicted above-normal rainfall in  the region spanning central Africa to the Arabian Sea and South Asia, Indonesia, and the Caribbean Sea. As of July 18, India has received 3 per cent lower than normal rainfall during the current south-west monsoon.  

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