India will likely import 8.6 million tonnes (mt) of palm oil during the November 2021-October 2022 season, up 3,00,000 tonnes from previous estimates, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The USDA’s Foreign Affairs Service, in its November “Oilseeds: World Market and Trade” outlook said it is anticipating an increase of 4,70,000 tonnes of palm oil imports by India to reach the mark of 8.5 mt during 2020-21. The recent cut in import duty by the Indian government is the reason for the higher imports, it said.

It said some global suppliers of palm oil have already increased exports to India. Following the first wave of tariff reductions by India, palm oil imports in August and September more than doubled from the January-July 2021 monthly average.

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Indonesia, the top palm oil supplier to India, has been the primary beneficiary of the increase in demand. Indonesia exporters maximised shipments ahead of their own September export tax hike on crude palm oil (CPO). Malaysia and Thailand palm oil exports to India also rose markedly in August and September, the USDA said.

Global oilseed production

USDA lowered its estimate for global oilseed production for 2021-22 as reduced soyabean production more than offsets gains in other oilseeds.

It said that lower soyabean production in Argentina and the US has partially been offset by higher production in India. Rapeseed in Iran, sunflower seed in the EU, and cottonseed in Australia and Brazil round out the production gains. Global crush is up nearly 1 mt on production gains.

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Trade is down as lower US and Argentina soyabean exports more than offset higher Brazil exports and lower rapeseed exports by Canada, as processors hold more of the limited supply for domestic crush. Global ending stocks are down mostly on lower soyabean stocks, it said.

The USDA said the global oilseed production is up one mt for 2020-21 mostly on a revision in Brazil’s 2021 soyabean harvest. Global oilseed trade is little changed overall. Gains in nearly all oilseed crush pushed global crush 1 mt higher.

Soyabean accounts for nearly half of the increase, primarily on a rebound in Argentina’s September crush after two months of sub-par performance. Global oilseed stocks are up as higher Brazil and China soyabean stocks more than offset lower Argentina soyabean stocks as a result of higher crush, it said.

Protein meal

According to the USDA, global production of protein meal is forecast higher for 2021-22 with the larger crush expected. Protein meal trade is up primarily on higher India soyabean meal exports and Canada’s focus on producing and exporting rapeseed products instead of seed. It said that protein meal consumption is little changed overall, while stocks are up mostly on higher soyabean meal stocks in Argentina and India.

It said global protein meal production for 2020-21 would be down slightly despite larger crush on a downward revision in China’s soyabean meal extraction rate.

Protein meal exports are marginally higher. Global consumption is down, led by reduced soyabean meal consumption in China. Global protein meal stocks are up fractionally on increased soyabean meal stocks in Argentina and India, it added.

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