Vigorous monsoon swamps west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan

West Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan received extremely heavy rainfall during the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning, while east Gujarat, Bihar, Punjab and Jharkhand saw very heavy rainfall as the belt of heavy precipitation covered West India and adjoining North-West India.

It was heavy over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Saurashtra, Kutch, east Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.

This is even as a fresh low-pressure area formed over the north Bay of Bengal, true to prediction.

Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls likely to continue over east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh until Wednesday and reduce thereafter, only to pick up from Friday.

Rains to return to Konkan, Goa

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls very likely over Konkan, Goa, Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra during the next three days and increase to isolated very heavy falls over the region from Thursday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update on Tuesday.

It assessed significant rainfall amounts (in cm) recorded until Tuesday morning as: Guna-26; Baran-22; Sheopur-16; Kapurthala, Jamtara and Anand-13; Burdwan, Araria-12; Jhalawar and Madhepura-11; Ashoknagar, Delhi (Safdarjung) and Pratapgarh-10; Delhi (Lodhi Road), Tapi, Valsad, Churu, Hanumangarh, Bharatpur, Bokaro, Satara and Vidisha-9.

Other major centres are Gwalior, Junagarh, Mandsaur, Navsari, Rajgarh, Bagdogra, Barrackpore, Darjeeling, Cuddalore, Hamirpur, Alwar-8 cm; and Delhi (Palam and Ayanagar), Palwal, east Champaran, Gorakhpur, Nashik, Barpeta and Dangs-7 each, the IMD said.

Vigorous Asian monsoon

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday that a vigorous monsoon flow extends in typical fashion from North India, across South-East Asia, and into the western North Pacific Ocean. Two tropical storms are active, including ‘Nepartak,’ which is expected to impact Honshu Island in Japan.

The Bureau attributed the enhanced wet conditions to a strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave that left the Indian Ocean and has moved into the West Pacific. The MJO and other tropical waves contributed to the enhanced weather across Asia and the West Pacific Ocean.

The Bureau predicted early rainfall onset for the 2021-22 season across most of Northern Australia. The forecast for an increased likelihood of early wet season rainfall is consistent with the establishment of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is not actually palatable for the Indian monsoon.

Bay ‘low’ to intensify

Meanwhile, the IMD said that the low-pressure area over the North Bay may intensify as a well-marked ‘low’ just as its predecessor. It may move to North Bay and adjoining Bangladesh by Wednesday and slowly grind its way westwards across West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar during two next days.

Widespread rain and isolated heavy to very heavy falls may persist over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh till Wednesday. Isolated extremely heavy falls may over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand as well as over North-West Uttar Pradesh.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are also forecast for Odisha, plains of West Bengal, Jharkhand, and Bihar until Friday and for east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh from Thursday to Saturday.

Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over plains of West Bengal on Wednesday and Thursday; Jharkhand on Thursday; Chhattisgarh on Friday; and east Madhya Pradesh on Saturday.