Heavy to very heavy rain has been reported at many places in Kerala and isolated places in Lakshadweep as the watch for onset of South-West monsoon continues.
The winds continue to be northwesterly, and have to become westerly to southwesterly to precipitate the onset over the Kerala coast.
ROGUE CIRCULATION
A rogue circulation in North-West Arabian Sea, fortunately not seen gaining significant strength, has been usurping incoming southwesterly winds off the Somali coast in Africa.
After feeding this circulation, the winds are able to blow only as northwesterlies into the Kerala coast. They need to straighten out and flow in from westerly to southwesterly direction across the Maldives.
India Met Department wind maps plots the rogue circulation as being active off the Yemen coast at least until June 2, sending in northwesterly winds into the Kerala coast.
Under the circumstances, the onset of monsoon could get pushed into June, to fall within the ‘window’ indicated by the Met Department (June 3 with error margin of four days on either side).
HEAVY RAIN
Some international agencies had indicated the possibility of seasonal rains making a slightly early onset this time.
Meanwhile, centres recording heavy downpour (in cm) overnight in Kerala are Vadakara and Quilandy (Kozhikode) -14 each; Alappuzha -10; Kochi airport and Kumarakom (Kottayam) - 8 each.
Other chief amounts of rainfall reported in cm are: Kozhikode, Konni, Mancompu and Vadakkancherry – 5 each; Irikkur and Mannarkad - 4 each; Chengannur and Kodungallur- 3 each.
Forecast valid until Tuesday morning said that rain or thundershowers would continue to occur at many places in Kerala and at a few places in Lakshadweep.
WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning said that isolated heavy rainfall could break out in the State during the next two days. No significant change is expected until Thursday.
Fishermen have been warned that strong onshore winds occasionally reaching a speed of 45-55 km/hr is likely along off the Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep area until Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, conditions are favourable for further advance of South-West monsoon over some more parts of southeast and east-central Bay of Bengal and parts of northeast Bay during the next three days.