Better model consensus is emerging on the possibility of stormy conditions evolving in the Bay of Bengal from the month-end. But unlike the initial outlook, none seems to go so far as to bet on a tropical cyclone. The last time a cyclone had churned up the waters ere was when very severe cyclone Bulbul made a landfall over the West Bengal coast in November, 2019.

If we compare the pre-monsoon season (March to May) year to year, last year (2019) saw a more powerful and extremely severe cyclone Fani riding the warm waters of the Bay. It went on to become the strongest cyclone to strike the Odisha coast the since the 1999 super cyclone.

Year after Cyclone Fani

Fani had originated from a depression that formed West of Sumatra on April 26, not very far in time and place from the low-pressure area forecast to develop over the next three-four days, and which models would track closely for signs of intensification, exactly a year hence in 2020.

Private forecaster The Weather Company, an IBM Business, said on Tuesday that models still show some variability with regard to strength and intensity of the system but sounded caution with respect to probability of high winds and heavy rain around the Andaman & Nicobar Islands beyond Friday.

IMD projects depression

India Meteorological Department under whose jurisdiction the sea basin falls, said on Monday that the low-pressure area would undergo two rounds of intensification into a depression by May 3 or 4. It has also projected an initial North-North-West track later shifting to North-North-East, taking the depression towards the Myanmar coast.

The European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees the system travelling too close to the long Myanmarese coast extending into the South-East Bay of Bengal and not quite getting the elbowroom to intensify beyond a depression/deep depression. But the Global Forecast System sees a more westerly track and better scope for intensification. Ditto with the Global Ensemble Forecast System.

Volatile weather in East

As for current weather trends, The Weather Company graphics hinted show how moisture-laden southerly winds from the Bay and northwesterly winds from inland would converge over Odisha and the adjoining areas resulting in unstable conditions over East India. Moderate to heavy rain, with some intense and active thundershowers, are likely over the region on Tuesday.

A cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh would pump in moist air into the North-Eastern States, triggering thunderstorms associated with the ongoing Kalbaisakhi season accompanied by hailstorm and wind gusts. The heaviest rains through the next five days will be over North Odisha, South of West Bengal, Meghalaya, and Nagaland-Mizoram-Manipur-Tripura with totals over five cm reaching 10 cm possible locally.

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