North and northwest India are gaining at the expense of the south as a train of western disturbances promises to trigger fresh snow and rain along the western Himalayas and fog in the plains.
In fact, three weather-making western disturbances would cross in from across the Indo-Pak border during the course of this week and early next, according to India Met Department.
FEBRUARY RAINS
February has already brought good rainfall for north and northwest India except in the Met subdivisions of west Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi.
But Jammu and Kashmir (deficit of 37 per cent) and Himachal Pradesh (deficit of 23 per cent) look set to make major gains from the impending round of rain.
Adjoining plains, not excluding west Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, may too get spill-over rain during the period.
According to the Met Department, the western Himalayas may witness fairly widespread to widespread precipitation without any significant break.
WET WEEK SEEN
Dense fog and isolated to scattered rain or thunderstorms are likely over the plains of northwest India, though with a possible break of one to two days in between.
Heavy rainfall and snowfall may continue to lash Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the weekend and early into the next week.
An assessment by the US Climate Prediction Centre suggested that the week beginning Tuesday would see heavy to very heavy rain/snow over north Pakistan.
On crossing the border, the wave may let up some steam but set off moderate to heavy rain over Jammu and Kashmir, especially to the east, as also north Rajasthan, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh.
US FORECASTS
Entire Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining Punjab are likely to get excess rainfall during the period.
During the week that follows (beginning February 24), the wave of moderate to heavy rain will leave Pakistan and entrench over north Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh.
This will translate into better rain also for the plains of northwest India, and east India, parts of which are faced with deficits of varying amounts since the dawn of the New Year.
The threat of mudslide/avalanches is also enhanced for Uttarakhand, adjoining Nepal, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh in line with the eastward movement of the rain-setting western disturbance/s.
SOUTHERN COMFORT
Deficit-ridden Bihar, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal are also likely to witness a turn for the better as the wave touches them off during this period.
Significantly, the US Centre has also some good news in the making for South India, especially Kerala and adjoining parts of south Tamil Nadu during the week under reference.
Except Karnataka, the rest – Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, and residual Andhra Pradesh – have fallen in the red and are carrying significant rain deficits as they brace for the summer.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh has deficit of 82 per cent, Kerala 75 per cent, Rayalaseema 61 per cent and Tamil Nadu 60 per cent. Lakshadweep is worse off with a deficit of 90 per cent.