Western disturbances have continued to be benevolently disposed to the country as a whole showering above normal rainfall of 108 per cent so far (January 1-February 9). But the outlook for the next fortnight suggests a slight deviation to the lower side of the median.
An extended forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that the upcoming week (February 10-16) may see below-normal over the hills and plains of North-West India but above normal over the extreme South Peninsula.
East India, a likely gainer
As for the subsequent week (February 17-23), below-normal rain outlook will continue to hold for most parts of the hills of North-West India, normal to above normal over East and North-East India and the extreme South Peninsula.
But the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction says that during February 18-26, the hills (Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand) and adjoining plains of North-West India may witness some rain from visiting western disturbances.
Intense activity to East
These disturbances would suddenly become intense and active as they travel towards East and North-East India by interacting with south-easterlies/easterlies from the Bay of Bengal and spark rain over East India and adjoining North-East India.
They would also light up activity in the form of lightning and thundershowers for the adjoining East Coast (Odisha and Andhra Pradesh) before spreading out over the South Peninsula (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala) and neighbourhood.
Meanwhile, the period ending on Wednesday (from January 1) saw the rainfall for the country as a whole add up to +108 per cent. Central India is the biggest gainer at+145 per cent, followed by North-West India, +105 per cent; South Peninsula, +101 per cent; and the normally deficit East and North-East India, at +94 per cent.
Western disturbance over UP
This (Friday) morning, the IMD located a western disturbance parked over east Uttar Pradesh with a long limb in the form of a weather-making trough extending from its belly from Bihar extending right down to north interior Karnataka.
The combo is expected to cause isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning for the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim during next two days and over Jharkhand, Bihar, plains of West Bengal and Odisha today.
Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning are forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya for two days. Isolated hailstorms also may line up over over Assam and Meghalaya tomorrow (Saturday).
Thundershowers for South
Meanwhile, to the North-West, strong winds (speed 25-35 km/hr) may prevail over over Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh during the next two days. An incoming western disturbance may trigger scattered light rainfall/snowfall over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on Sunday and Monday.
Towards the South, isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala, Mahe, Lakshadweep and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands during most days of the week, the IMD outlook for this week said.
Isolated thunderstorms accompanied with lightning also are likely over Tami Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe during the first half of this week. Dry weather may prevail over the remaining parts of the country.