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Successive western disturbances visiting North-West India and their productive interaction with easterlies from the Bay of Bengal have changed the rainfall scenario to normal or excess over parts of North, North-West, Central and even Peninsular India.
More such incoming disturbances will help sustain the momentum of the variously wet and violent weather for another week (until February 20 or Wednesday next), according to the latest indications.
Individual deficits
The rainfall scenario has turned into a surplus of 20 per cent for the country as a whole so far in 2019, though there are deficits in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, parts of Karnataka, entire Tamil Nadu and Kerala, East and North-East India.
Entire North and North-West India, Saurashtra and Kutch and Bihar are either in ‘normal’ or ‘surplus’ rainfall category; while Telangana, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka in the South, too, have posted surprise surpluses.
The latest reported week (February 7-13) came up with major surpluses with Coastal Karnataka (+2,744 per cent) and South Interior Karnataka (+1,854 per cent) being runaway toppers.
Actual rainfall amounts were just 0.3 mm and 7.8 mm respectively.
Meanwhile, an incoming ‘intense’ western disturbance that had left Iran on Tuesday, has crossed East Afghanistan and North Pakistan and entered the western half of Jammu & Kashmir on Wednesday morning.
‘Low’ to form today
The India Met Department (IMD) expects an induced low-pressure area to form over West Rajasthan on Thursday even as a cyclonic circulation from a prevailing disturbance persists over South Haryana.
The westerly to north-westerly flows from the ‘low’ may interact with tropical easterlies kicked from the Bay of Bengal by a resident anti-cyclone for three days from Wednesday.
Under its influence, fairly widespread to widespread rain/snow with isolated hailstorms have been forecast over the Western Himalayan during this period.
Isolated heavy rain/snow is likely over Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh tomorrow, while scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers and isolated hailstorms may lash North-West and Central India.
Rains for East
This is likely to pan out for three days from Thursday, even as isolated heavy rains may prevail over the northern parts of Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh.
The rainfall activity will shift towards East India from Friday and cause isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers over East India on Friday and Saturday.
Strong winds with 40 km/hr speed and gusting to 50 km/hr will prevail over the plains of North-West India and adjoining Central India on Thursday.
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