Global model forecasts show entire coastal Tamil Nadu, and around the Cape into south Kerala, resembling a ‘ring of fire’ with moderate to strong northeast monsoon in action through the week.

A prevailing rain wave from southeast Bay of Bengal has lit up activity downstream and north-northwest into southwest Bay of Bengal, which is pouring it down over the Sri Lankan and peninsular Indian coast.

A forecast outlook for next week also shows a follow-up rain wave sitting smack over the Tamil Nadu coast even as successive waves roll over west across land into Arabian Sea and set up low-pressure systems there.

Both the seas feature rain-driving troughs of low pressure (which ultimately could set up full-blow low-pressure systems), setting up the ground for enhanced churn closer to the coasts.

In fact, India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its morning outlook, said the trough extending from Lakshadweep into east-central Arabian Sea could throw up a ‘low’ very soon.

This is where a US agency has been forecasting the formation of a moderate to strong tropical storm, although IMD has not indicated that possibility just yet.

The counterpart trough in the Bay, extending from southwest to west-central, could likely trigger the formation of a ‘low’ next week, if global forecasts are any indication.

Suffice to say that the ongoing rains across the peninsular South could last into next week, with stray rain bands lashing coastal Karnataka, Konkan and even south Gujarat coasts.

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