A huge but unanticipated increase in India's pulses production (from 14.7 million tonnes in 2009-10 to 17.3 million tonnes 2010-11) has caused some unease among exporting countries that have been overly dependent on the world's largest importer, producer and consumer.
For the first time in many years, India's pulses output has exceeded the target of 16.5 million tonnes by a good margin. This follows a sizeable expansion in the area devoted to pulses, both in the kharif and rabi seasons, and of course normal monsoon rains.
The unease is because imports into the country have slowed down in recent months. It is estimated that during financial year 2010-11, imports totalled approximately 2.7 million tonnes, down a fifth from the previous year's record 3.6 million tonnes.
Now, the question uppermost in exporters' minds is whether India's pulses production will keep rising at the same rate as last year. On current reckoning, it appears far-fetched that the growth in pulses output would once again record a big jump of 2.6 million tonnes or roundabouts.
This is simply because there is no great or new incentive to expand acreage further. In 2010, open market prices were sky-high and growers did enjoy at least a part of the price premium for a prolonged period of time. In recent months, after the large harvest, open market prices have actually corrected downwards by 25-35 per cent, bringing relief to consumers.
Actually, we should be happy if growers continue to retain last year's pulses acreage. In kharif 2010, the total area planted to pulses was 12.6 million hectares, up by a fifth from the previous two years (10.5 million hectares each) which resulted in a harvest of a record 7.0 million tonnes, far above the target of 5.7 million tonnes and the previous year's actual output of 4.2 million tonnes.
Attempts should be made to raise yields from the current low levels of about 600 kg per hectare, although it is easier said than done given the absence of any genetic breakthrough in seed technology and inadequate input management. So, the big question is: will the pulses acreage in kharif 2011 stay unchanged at close to 13 million hectares? Weather is, of course, a key driver of production. The forecast of a normal monsoon notwithstanding, the India Meteorological Department itself has admitted to uncertainties. So, the situation needs to be closely monitored.
Meanwhile, it is early May, and yet, there has been no announcement of a minimum support price for kharif crops. It is unclear what is holding up the announcement.
India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru may have famously said “Everything can wait except agriculture,” but in recent years, agriculture has been kept waiting for policy attention even as many other things have got done expeditiously in our country. On the demand side, the Planning Commission's projections appear outdated.
For 2011-12, the terminal year of the XI Five-Year Plan, the projected demand for pulses is 19.9 million tonnes. It is unclear if the demand includes “seeding demand” in addition to consumption demand. Assuming an average of 25 kg per hectare, seed demand works out to about 6 lakh tonnes. In case of consumption, one has to reckon with milling losses of approximately 20 per cent.
When the numbers are put together, the final availability for consumption works out to 14-15 million tonnes, far below the popularly touted numbers (production plus imports of 17-18 million tonnes.). A lot more scientific work deserves to go into the preparation of S&D for the pulses sector.