The world witnessed its warmest-ever June last month with the average temperature being 0.67°C above the 1991-2020 average for June and 0.14°C above the previous high set in June 2023, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has said.
“This (June) is the 13th month in a row that is the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year. While unusual, a similar streak of monthly global temperature records happened previously in 2015-2016,” C3S, the earth observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, said in a statement
ERA5 is the fifth generation ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) reanalysis of the global climate and weather for the past eight decades. Data is available from 1940 onwards.
July-June scenario
According to Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, “This (June being the warmest) is more than a statistical oddity and it highlights a large and continuing shift in our climate. Even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm. This is inevitable unless we stop adding GHG into the atmosphere and the oceans.”
According to ERA5 data, June was 1.50°C above the estimated June average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period. It was the 12th consecutive month when the temperature reached or broke the 1.5°C threshold. “The global average temperature for the past 12 months (July 2023 – June 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.76°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average,” C3S said.
La Nina development
Though there were indications of La Nina developing with temperatures below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific, the air temperatures over the ocean remained at an unusually high level over many regions.
Experts say this could be one reason why La Nina, forecast to emerge during July-September, could set in later this year.
The sea surface temperature (SST) averaged for June 2024 over 60°S–60°N was 20.85°C, the highest value on record for the month.
This is the fifteenth month in a row that the SST has been the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the year. It said drier-than-average conditions were seen across several regions of Asia.