Forecasting good news for the country’s economy and farmers, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reiterated its initial prediction of ‘above normal’ rainfall in this year’s South-West monsoon season.

“The conditions are congenial for the onset of monsoon in the next four-five days and the rainfall quantity will pick up in the second half of June,” IMD Director-General LS Rathore said at a press conference, while releasing an update for the long-range monsoon forecast (June-September) on Thursday.

The icing on the cake is the IMD ruling out a deficient monsoon. “There is a zero per cent probability that the rainfall will be deficient,” Rathore said. A deficient monsoon, which means less than 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall, could cause severe distress to farmers, crop loss and drought.

This year’s projected plentiful rainfall will bring to an end to two consecutive years of drought. Last year, the country suffered a rainfall deficit of 14 per cent, while in the previous year, the shortfall was 12 per cent.

Above average

Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106 per cent of the LPA, according to the projection. The monsoon is considered to be above normal when the rainfall is between 104 per cent and 110 per cent of the LPA.

Region wise, the seasonal rainfall is likely to be 108 per cent of the LPA over North-West India, 113 per cent over both Central India and the Peninsula and 94 per cent over North-East India.

While the probability of excess rainfall (rain over 110 per cent of LPA) is 23 per cent, Rathore dismissed concerns on the possibility of floods. “Floods happen if you have continuous excessive rain within a short span. But if the distribution is good, there are no floods,” he said.

The monthly rainfall over the country is likely to be 107 per cent of its Long Period Average in July, and 104 per cent of the LPA in August, both with a model error of (+/-) 9 per cent.

La Nina may set in

The low rainfall of the last two years was mainly attributed to El Nino, an irregularly occurring series of climatic changes affecting the equatorial Pacific region, which causes drought conditions in Asia.

This year El Nino conditions have already turned to neutral after becoming moderate in April and weakening in early May, according to the IMD.

On the other side, there is a 50 per cent probability of La Nina conditions, which favour the monsoon, during the season. “When there is a La Nina condition, there is a probability of extension of rains,” Rathore said, indicating that rains could continue in October.

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