The all-India energy demand is higher in 4QFY21 on a y-o-y basis, despite partial lockdowns in some of the States on account of an increase in Covid-19 cases.

According to India Ratings report, in February, the all-India energy demand increased 0.2 per cent y-o-y to 104.6 billion units (January 2021: up 5.0 per cent; December 2020: up 4.9 per cent). The energy demand over April 2020-February 2021 was lower by 2.8 per cent on a y-o-y basis (9MFY21: down 3.9 per cent y-o-y; 1HFY21: down 8.7 per cent y-o-y; 1QFY21: down 15.9 per cent y-o-y).

The short-term power price at Indian Energy Exchange continued its improving trend on a y-o-y basis with the prices breaching ₹4/unit in March for the first time since October 2018 (first 25 days of March ₹4.1/unit; February ₹3.39/unit; February 2020 ₹2.91/kWh. In February 2021, a 19.5 per cent y-o-y increase (5,124 million units) in the traded volumes was witnessed in the day-ahead market.

The electricity generation increased 0.1 per cent y-o-y to 101.1 billion units in February 2021 (January 2021: up 5.4 per cent; December 2020: up 4.6 per cent y-o-y), supported by 1.9 per cent y-o-y growth in thermal generation (up 7.1 per cent y-o-y; up 5.8 per cent y-o-y), although hydro generation fell 14.0 per cent y-o-y (down 8.0 per cent; down 8.2 per cent y-o-y). Electricity generation from renewable sources increased 2.0 per cent y-o-y to 11.5 billion units in February 2021, with solar generation increasing 12.2 per cent y-o-y. The renewable generation over 11MFY21 improved 5.8 per cent y-o-y to 134.3 billion units.

The improvement in energy demand and the reduced generation from hydro and renewables sources have helped the thermal plant load factor (PLF) increase to 63.3 per cent in February 2021.

Despite showing a y-o-y improvement during September 2020-February 2021, the thermal PLFs over 11MFY21 was lower at 53.4 per cent (11MFY20: 56.4 per cent), mainly impacted by a decline in power demand, given the must-run status of nuclear, hydro and renewables.

The coal production by Coal India Limited (CIL) fell 6.6 per cent y-o-y to 61.9mt in February 2021, after showing y-o-y growth between August to December 2020 (January 2021: down 4.1 per cent).

 

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