"The surplus rain of June appears to have been wiped out with the latest data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday showing rain between June 1 and July 6 at 214.4 millimetres (mm) below the normal of 215.3 mm."

This week is seen as crucial for Kharif crops, especially pulses, oilseeds and cotton, as much of the sowing is yet to happen.

The IMD estimated steady rains across north-west India, which received 12 per cent above normal rainfall over the period. The dry spell is likely to be covered up by end-July, said private agency Skymet. “The monsoon was in a weak phase through the last week, but overall rain this month should be around the normal (+-4 per cent). I believe the worst for the month is over. It depends on the second half of the month to make up for the shortfall and there are positive systems developing,” said GP Sharma, Vice-President, Meteorology, Skymet.

The rain in the Capital through Monday and across Western and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal, is due to a Western disturbance pulling the monsoon trough northward. These conditions are likely to last another three days to a week, said Sharma, who expected only parts of peninsular India and certain pockets of Gujarat and Maharashtra to receive subdued rain over the month.

“We are seeing two good systems forming, one of these around July 10, which should move inland over Gujarat and the central parts of the country. This region will, however, not receive much rain over the next three or four days,” he added. The IMD, which has forecast rainfall to be 92 per cent of the normal in July, also expects steady showers across the Gangetic plains, with parts of Southern and Western India likely to receive less rainfall.

As per the data published, rainfall in East and Northeast India was 4 per cent lower than normal between July 1 and July 6, while Central India and the South peninsula had shortfalls of 2 and 1 per cent, respectively.

“The Northwest is getting good rain, which will continue over the next few days. Parts of peninsular India, such as North interior Karnataka and certain regions in Gujarat will likely get less precipitation,” said BP Yadav, Director, IMD.

Crucial week While Kharif sowing is up nearly 58 per cent over the corresponding period last year, as per Agriculture Ministry data, rain this week is crucial for pulses, oilseeds and cotton growing regions that are rain-fed, considering the bulk of sowing is yet to be carried out.

“Rain during this week is very important, since there has not been much of it over the last two weeks. It is crucial not only for the crops sown but also for the rest of the area left to be sown at this point,” JS Sandhu, Agriculture Commissioner, told BusinessLine .

“We have asked farmers to be judicious with water that’s been retained in ponds and other bodies.

"It’s not a scary situation with reports saying that rain is likely through the week, but yes, the sown crop definitely needs water now,” added Sandhu.

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