BluFin, a financial information and content company, today said that its business cycle indicator continues to forecast an expanding Indian economy. This is reflected in the numbers of BluFin Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) for June 2013.
Recent volatility in the exchange rate is not expected to impede the economic recovery, according to BluFin. At the current score of 167.1, a rise of 5.6 per cent over the same month last year, the BCI continues to indicate an expansion, suggesting that the Indian economy is growing at a faster rate than the previous year.
The year-on-year growth rate noted in the previous month was 5.8 per cent and in June 2012 was 2.2 per cent. Historically, the BCI has grown at seven per cent year-on-year, on an average.
BCI is a composite indicator constructed to predict business cyclical turns. It uses the index of industrial production as the reference series.
Based on BCI trends, the GDP is likely to grow at 5.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2013-14, and will gather momentum by the third quarter with a forecasted growth of more than 6.2 per cent.