Central Electricity Authority (CEA) expects peak power demand to rise by 9 per cent to 230-235 GW by April 2023 from the current 215 GW thereby creating a demand-supply mismatch leading to a possible power crisis. According to Ghanshyam Prasad, Chairperson, CEA, if not properly planned then it could lead to a possible power crisis in the country.
During the Covid period the power demand was low and the situation was “comfortable”, however, unprecedented growth in 2021 led to a sudden surge in power demand. “If we are not careful, a similar level of crisis like the one we have seen this year may occur next year. In April 2023, as per our estimate, demand will be higher. Demand this year was about 215 GW which might go up to 230-235 GW,” Prasad said at the 13th energy conclave organised by CII here on Tuesday.
As per data from the CEA, peak demand in August this year stood at 196 GW.
India had faced one of the worst power crises leading to the threat of power outages in several parts of the country during last year and also in the current financial year due to a host of factors including a sudden spike in electricity demand, depleting stocks at thermal power plants, poor evacuation due to extended monsoons and non-payments of coal dues from States such as Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh resulting in inadequate supplies.
Addition of capacities
India currently has close to 210 GW of coal-based capacity. Plans are afoot to add 27 GW of coal-based generation by 2026-27 and another 30 GW by 2030. Although there are talks of phasing down thermal capacity it is likely to go up to 248 GW in best case scenario and in worst case it could go up 256 GW if there is low support from hydro and renewable energy.
“Nearly 27GW of coal-based generation is in pipeline by 2026-27 and that needs to be expedited and another 30 GW by 2030. These coal-based plants will come up at pithead areas due to huge issues in transportation and higher cost,” he said.
Transition
While talking about transition from fossil to non-fossil fuel, he said, though coal-based generation will go up, its share will come down from 75 per cent at present to close to 50 per cent by 2030 and in terms of capacity it should be 30 per cent.
In view of addition of 500 GW of renewable energy by 2030, there is a need to ramp up transmission capacity. The government is working on a plan for a 536 GW renewable evacuation capacity. “The government is working with all stakeholders and it will be announced soon,” he said.
Talking about transitioning towards sustainable energy business, Pramod Agrawal, CMD, Coal India, said India’s per capita energy consumption is far compared to global average. “We have to think about consumption pattern. People who are consuming more should reduce and ones who are consuming less should increase (consumption),” he said.