New Delhi
Following the end of the monsoon season including clocking the lowest imports in 2024 so far during August, India’s thermal coal shipments rebounded, albeit marginally, during September.
However, seaborne thermal coal imports by the world’s third largest energy consumer are expected to rise further in the current month and the ongoing quarter as demand picks up.
According to energy intelligence firm Kpler, India’s seaborne thermal coal imports rose by almost 5 per cent on a monthly basis last month to 12.65 million tonnes (mt). The shipments declined by around 9 per cent on an annual basis.
“Following a seasonal low of 12.08 mt in August, imports experienced a modest rebound to 12.65 mt in September, down by 1.17 mt y-o-y. The end of monsoon season typically correlates with lower hydro and wind power output, increasing the country’s reliance on coal-fired generation. This was likely the driving factor behind the extension of the import directive to power plants in mid-October,” Kpler’s Lead Major Dry Bulks Analyst Alexis Ellender told businessline.
Going ahead, he projected that India’s seaborne thermal coal imports are poised to rise further in October as demand picks up following the end of the monsoon season.
“The outlook for thermal coal imports has been boosted by Indian miners struggling to achieve significant growth in domestic coal production. At 68.96 mt, September output was up by only 2.51 per cent y-o-y. This followed a 7.51 per cent annual decline in August,” Ellender explained.
India’s cumulative coal production rose by 2.51 per cent y-o-y to 68.96 mt during September 2024. Captives/ Others also registered a positive growth of 30.61 per cent y-o-y producing 14.26 mt coal.
Despatch of the dry fuel increased by 5.32 per cent to 73.99 mt in September 2024. Captives/ Others too registered a positive growth of 46.72 per cent on an annual basis by despatching 14.91 mt.
Compared to August 2024, pan-India coal production rose by 10.04 per cent, while despatch was higher by 5.11 per cent. Historically, monsoon months of June-September result in subdued mining and transportation activities as rains hinders mobility. Wide spread and heavy to very heavy rains across eastern India impacted mining and mobility this year.
“Higher-than-usual rainfall is expected to weigh on coal production in the first half of October. However, we do not expect thermal coal imports to reach the heights of the Q4 2023 as stockpiles at power plants are around two thirds higher y-o-y,” Ellender said.