The Indian economy is expected to grow 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Friday, in its advance estimates for fiscal 2017.
Economists were unsusprised by the estimation. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor, SBI Group, said in a research note that the estimate was on expected lines . TCA Anant, Chief Statistician, said this was the “best effort estimate” for the full financial year of 2016-17. He made it clear that the CSO had not factored in deposits into the banking system in November 2016, the first month of demonetisation.
The surge in deposits in November caused volatility, which the CSO wanted to avoid in the computation although his office had all the relevant data, he said.
The second advance estimate of national income for 2016-17 and the quarterly GDP estimate for the October-December 2016 quarter will be released on February 28.
This advance estimate of 7.1 per cent is lower than the 7.6 per cent GDP growth for 2015-16, but is in sync with the RBI’s recent projection of 7.1 per cent for 2016-17.
Under financial services, the CSO took note of aggregate bank deposits and bank credits up to October 2016, which grew at 9.8 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively, against growth of 10.5 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively for the same period in 2015.
On an overall basis, financial services, real estate, insurance and professional services’ Gross Value Added (GVA) is expected to grow 9 per cent in 2016-17, lower than the 10.3 per cent growth in 2015-16.
In arriving at the GDP advance estimate, the CSO has also not factored in the Index of Industrial Production for November 2016, which is yet to be released.
Anant said the real GVA growth at basic prices in 2016-17 is expected to be 7 per cent (against 7.2 per cent in 2015-16). While agriculture GVA is expected to grow a robust 4.1 per cent in 2016-17 (against 1.2 per cent in 2015-16), manufacturing sector GVA growth is expected at 7.4 per cent (against 9.3 per cent in 2015-16).
To arrive at the estimates for agriculture, the CSO used the first advance estimates of production of major kharif crops for 2016-17 and targets based on rabi sowings.
According to the Department of Agriculture, foodgrains production during the kharif season of 2016-17 was 8.9 per cent, against a decline of 3.2 per cent during the same period in 2015-16,
The CSO has also projected mining and quarrying GVA to contract 1.8 per cent in 2016-17, against 9.3 per cent growth in 2015-16.
Another significant projection is that the CSO expects ‘net taxes on products’ to grow 8.5 per cent, much lower than the actual growth of 11.9 per cent in 2015-16.