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The overall GDP growth in India is expected to have grown at around 4.5 per cent during the second quarter of this financial year and is further likely to remain weak during the remainder of the fiscal, says a Dun & Bradstreet report.
According to the US-based research firm, the country’s economic growth rate in the second quarter of this fiscal (July-September) period is likely to be around 4.5 per cent.
This is a tad higher than the economic growth registered in the April-June quarter of this fiscal (4.4 per cent).
The country’s economic growth hit a decade low of 5 per cent in the last fiscal on account of a poor performance in the farm, manufacturing and mining sectors.
“With almost three quarters of FY14 behind us, inflationary pressures remain unabated, the manufacturing sector has failed to revive, the fiscal deficit continues to rise and domestic private sector consumption continues to weaken,” Dun and Bradstreet India Senior Economist Arun Singh said.
Singh further noted that “overall GDP is expected to have grown at around 4.5 per cent during Q2 FY14 and is further likely to remain weak during the remaining fiscal year.”
Currently, the only support has been from the easing of the current account deficit due to a revival in export demand and the fast-tracking of tardy infrastructure projects by the Cabinet Committee on Investments.
However, the trickle down effects of the execution of these huge projects can be realised only after a few more months, Singh added.
Though the RBI and the Government have taken a number of measures to support growth, “given that elections are around the corner, it remains to be seen how soon these measures help improve business confidence,” he said.
On the rupee, the report said the Indian currency is likely to remain under pressure primarily owing to speculation regarding the US Federal Reserve scaling back its stimulus, besides oil-related dollar demand.
“D&B expects the rupee to average 62.60-62.80 per USD during November 2013,” it said.
The rupee is currently hovering over the 62.80/US dollar level.
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