Sanctions imposed by the US and European nations on Russia and consequently on Alrosa, Russia’s largest diamond miner, will impact the growth of Indian diamond polishing industry.
Alrosa supplies 30 per cent of the rough diamonds globally and is the critical source for India, which imports, cuts and polishes 80-90 per cent of the world’s roughs.
The sanctions have severed Russia’s central bank and two major banks from the Swift system. Though the sanction does not prohibit business with Alrosa, trade settlement has become difficult, which could lead to supply disruptions.
The Indian diamond industry, which is almost entirely export-oriented, is likely to clock revenues of $24 billion this fiscal, bouncing back to pre-pandemic levels.
The average inventory levels of Indian diamantaires have reduced to about three months from over four months earlier due to steady increase in demand. This will still allow them to continue operations if the current disruption prolongs for a quarter.
Rahul Guha, Director, Crisil Ratings, said sales will be down by 25-30 per cent next quarter if the trade disruption prolongs and shave off about $2-2.5 billion. That would mean flattish growth next fiscal.
The decline would have been steeper but for the reasonably leaner period of the first half, when the industry generally reels in 45 per cent of its annual sales.
Profit under pressure
Operating profit of Indian diamantaires has been under pressure since the second half of this fiscal as they were not able to pass on a sharp 21 per cent increase in rough prices since the start of this fiscal.
Roughs were expected to rise 10-12 per cent next fiscal before the war broke out but now Crisil expects them to rise by a further 5-8 per cent amid the supply-side constraints.
Diamantaires may once again find it difficult to fully pass on higher rough prices to end consumers due to lack of pent-up demand, opening up of other avenues for discretionary spending such as travel and hospitality and the war tempering consumer sentiment.
This could lead to a potential 75-100 bps drop in diamantaires operating profit to 4-4.5 per cent next fiscal.