Economists expect a robust growth footprint for the fourth quarter of 2012-13 with many of them seeing it close to five per cent levels.
This forecast is higher than the 4.5 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth recorded in the third quarter of 2012-13.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will on Thursday release the fourth quarter GDP numbers for 2012-13.
The advance GDP growth estimate for 2012-13 has already been pegged 5 five per cent, a decadal low, against an actual growth rate of 6.2 per cent in 2011-12.
“We are looking at a small improvement in the fourth quarter, largely supported by agriculture’s performance. Our forecast is 4.9 per cent for Q4,” Shubhada M. Rao, Senior President and Chief Economist, YES Bank, told Business Line here.
YES Bank’s overall GDP growth forecast for 2012-13 is five per cent, she said.
For 2013-14, this private lender sees economy expanding by 5.9 per cent, lower than the Government’s estimate of 6.1-6.7 per cent.
Rao said the Indian economy was not completely out of the woods even as a small recovery was happening on the investment cycle.
“We expect the economy not to worsen further. The steps taken by the Government since September last year will manifest. That is why we are looking at GDP growth picking up by 90 basis points this fiscal,” she added.
Samiran Chakrabarty, Head of Research in India, Standard Chartered Bank, said he expected the Q4 GDP growth to be around five per cent.
For the financial year 2012-13, Standard Chartered Bank sees the growth rate at 5.2 per cent.
The first two quarters’ GDP numbers are most likely to be revised upwards and this will help bolster the overall performance for the entire 2012-13, Chakrabarty noted.
The Indian economy had grown by 5.5 per cent and 5.3 per cent in the first quarter and the second quarters, respectively, of 2012-13.
After having annually grown at about nine per cent between 2005 and 2008, the economy is set to record a decadal low growth of five per cent in 2012-13,
This is to some extent due to demand slowdown in the developed markets besides the crisis in the Euro Zone.
Domestic factors like environmental clearances, land acquisition problems did not help spur investments, leading to subdued growth.
Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday said the global economy would recover in 2014 and both the US and Japan would continue to outpace the Euro area.
The OECD sees US economy recording 1.9 per cent growth this year and 2.8 per cent in 2014.
The Euro area is expected to shrink 0.6 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent in 2014, OECD said in its semi-annual economic outlook report on Wednesday.
Japan’s economy is expected to expand 1.6 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent next year.