With uncertainty in the Euro Zone, the Indian economy is estimated to grow at 6.9 per cent during fiscal 2011-12 after two consecutive years of 8 per cent-plus growth. In 2010-11, the economy expanded 8.4 per cent. But the good news is that the national per capita income is set to exceed the Rs 60,000 level during this fiscal.
According to the figures, released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Tuesday, the country's GDP growth is expected to come from growth rates of over 8 per cent in the sectors such as electricity, gas and water supply, trade, hotels, transport and communication, and financing, insurance, real estate and business services. However, growth may be slow in sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishing (2.5 per cent), manufacturing (3.9 per cent) and construction (4.8 per cent).
The Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, expressed disappointment over the GDP figures, but said he was not surprised. The Planning Commission Deputy Chairman, Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, however, found the numbers on expected lines.
Mr Mukherjee said: “There have been some encouraging signs in the recent weeks on business sentiments, rupee exchange rate, moderation in headline inflation, possibility of a bumper Rabi crop, and continued strong performance of the services sector, which should help recover the growth momentum.” He anticipated an upward revision in the GDP growth numbers when the full data for 2011-12 come out.
The Finance Minister said that though figures of advance estimates for looked somewhat disappointing, considering the current global context and slowdown in the domestic industrial sector, the growth performance is not all that surprising.
Mr Ahluwalia said: “The 6.9 per cent is consistent with what we have been saying. We said 7 per cent for the year (2011-12) as a whole. Now, with 7.3 per cent in the first half and 6.9 in the third quarter, 7 per cent annual growth rate is possible.”
Meanwhile, Dr C. Rangarajan, Chairman of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, estimated the growth rate slightly higher than the CSO's projection.
“If industrial production picks up in the current quarter, then, I will not be surprised if the final, or revised, estimate is 7 per cent or more,” he said in Mumbai.