Ahead of announcements of election results on June 4, five key high frequency indicators will lay out the economic framework for the policy structure of the new government. All these indicators will be made public within the next eight days days and barring GST, all are expected to exceed estimates.

Government’s Statistics Office will release growth data for FY24 and Q4 of FY 24 on May 31. On the same date, two other key data, Fiscal Deficit for FY24 and April in FY 25 along with the core sector performance will be out. A day after that, GST collection in May will be published while on June 3, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May will be known.

Fiscal Deficit

The fiscal deficit is expected to be lower than the revised estimate. The government, in the interim budget, revised the fiscal deficit for FY24 at 5.8 per cent from budget estimate of 5.9 per cent. Since revised estimate is based on income and expenditure of the first nine months (April-December) of a fiscal, significant change in these two during the last quarters of the fiscal have an impact on actual deficit. Both tax and non-tax revenue recorded much better performance, led by GST collection and dividends from Central Public Sector Undertakings (CPSEs).

The expectation is that deficit for FY24 would be at least 10-20 basis points lower than the revised estimates, though some economists have given slightly optimistic reduction up to 40 basis points. Any reduction in FY 24 followed by revision in the FY25 fiscal deficit on account of ₹2.10 lakh crore of dividend is critical for achieving 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by the end of FY26.

GDP

Various economists and research agencies estimate that GDP would have grown between 7.5 to 7.8 per cent during FY 24. India ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) expects growth rate between 6.9 and 7 per cent.  In a report, ICRA projected the year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion of the GDP to moderate to a four-quarter low of 6.7 per cent in Q4 FY24 from 8.4 per cent in Q3 FY24. Further, the gap between the GDP and the GVA growth is likely to moderate to 100 basis points (bps) in Q4 FY2024 from the particularly high 185 bps in the previous quarter. This is on account of an expected lower expansion in the net indirect taxes in Q4 owing to a narrower dip in the subsidy outgo for the full-year FY24. ICRA expects the GDP and GVA growth to print at 7.8 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, unless the growth for 9M FY24 is revised, the report said.

GST collection

After an all-time high collection of ₹2.10 lakh crore in April, collection in May is expected to be lower on month-on-month basis, but higher on year-on basis. One key indication is e-Way bill generation. Research agency CARE Edge says, “Generation of e-way bills in April slowed to ₹96.7 million from ₹103.5 million last month, indicating that GST collections are expected to see some moderation in the coming month.”

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