The country’s industrial output is expected to remain subdued but in the positive range of 1-2 per cent during January due to moderation in consumption and weak external demand, a Dun & Bradstreet report says.
According to the research firm, though the Government has already started taking measures and the RBI has initiated easing of the monetary policy, its impact on industrial activity is likely to take some time.
“IIP is expected to remain volatile and IIP growth is expected to remain in the range of 1-2 per cent during January,” the report said.
The industrial output contracted by 0.6 per cent in December registering the second consecutive month of decline.
“The sustained volatility in the industrial activity indicates that the revival in growth would be delayed than expected.
“This raises hopes that the RBI would continue to ease its monetary policy to boost confidence and support industrial activity going ahead,” Dun & Bradstreet India Senior Economist Arun Singh said.
The report further said while the moderation in consumption demand is expected to slow down manufactured products inflation, upside risks to overall inflation in the medium term persists from the gradual hike in diesel prices and increase in global crude oil prices.
D&B expects WPI inflation to remain in the range of 6.3-6.5 per cent in February 2013 and CPI inflation continuing to hover above the double digit at around 10.7 per cent-10.9 per cent in January.
“The divergence in the WPI and CPI inflation points to the prevalence of structural bottlenecks which need to be addressed,” Singh said.
The central bank had last month lowered interest rates by 0.25 per cent saying that with inflation showing signs of remaining range bound, it was now critical to arrest the loss of growth momentum.
According to advance estimates of the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), GDP growth in the current fiscal is likely to be 5 per cent. However, the Government expects it to be over 5.5 per cent. The economy grew by 6.2 per cent in 2011-12 fiscal.
Regarding the upcoming Union Budget, Singh said it is expected to address the structural bottlenecks and deliver measures which would bring about stability, reinforce growth prospects and also instil confidence among companies, Singh added.