India will likely have three consecutive months of surplus rains as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday predicted “above normal” (at least more than 9 per cent surplus) rainfall during September, potentially threatening crops which are at advanced stage of harvest.

Addressing a virtual press conference, IMD’s Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country is expected to receive above normal rainfall in September, quantitatively more than 109 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 167.9 mm.

He said: “above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of India, except some parts of extreme north-west region, many parts of south Peninsular India, north Bihar and north-east UP and most parts of north-east India where below-normal rainfall is likely.”

Heavy rainfall episodes

IMD’s forecast also points to possibilities of heavy to very heavy rainfall in Uttarakhand, parts of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan and north-west areas of Madhya Pradesh. “There could be episodes of extremely heavy rainfall in these areas, potentially leading to floods. We should remain cautious of landslides, mudslides, and landslips,” Mohapatra said.

Explaining the reason for the higher rainfall, he said: “We expect one low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal each week of the month, which will result in significant rainfall across the country.”

The monsoon trough is expected to remain in its normal position, with the possibility of several low-pressure systems developing in the Bay of Bengal, which may travel towards west-northwest up to Rajasthan. The trough could also shift towards the foothills of the Himalayas, and there is a potential for a western disturbance to affect the region in September, Mohapatra said.

Releasing the August rainfall data, the IMD DG said the country received 287.1 mm rainfall in the month, which is 15.7 per cent above normal of 248.1 mm. The rainfall was 11 per cent deficient in June and 9 per cent surplus in July.

Most crops acreage up

The kharif sowing has reached near normal area of the season’s 1.096 lakh hectares as of August 23 and except cotton and jute, acreage of most of the other crops is higher this year from year-ago and it has been consistent week after week. This points to normal or early sowing of crops by farmers which will also result in normal harvesting period.

“We have to watch exactly where will be heavy rains and what crops are grown in those areas. While crops like paddy, tur and groundnut will not be affected, crops like bajra, soyabean, moong and urad could be at risk id there are frequent heavy rains as September has about 19 per cent share in monsoon season,” said J S Sandhu, former agriculture commissioner.

He said crops having 75 days maturity if grown around last week of June may be ready for harvest in September and those crops may be at risk if heavy rains continue.

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