Approaching winters and tight supply forecast is putting pressure on prices of spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) , a development that is likely to impact India’s efforts to source the commodity at competitive prices.

“As winter approaches with rising LNG prices and tight winter supply outlook, India may face challenges in securing competitively priced spot LNG cargoes, largely staying sidelined,” global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler said in its latest commentary on India.

Trade sources said that spot LNG prices currently are in the range of $13-14 per million British thermal units (mBtu) with temperatures expected to drop in the coming days in Europe, particularly northern and western Europe.

Besides, the start of the 5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) Chhara LNG import terminal has been delayed to early 2025 due to construction setbacks, slightly diminishing India’s LNG imports for 2024, it added.

As per the latest data from the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas (MoPNG), LNG import during October 2024 (provisional) was 2,932 million standard cubic meters (MSCM), which was 10.5 per cent Y-o-Y higher.

Cumulative imports during April-October of FY25 stood at 22,085 MSCM , on a provisional basis, higher by 22.2 per cent Y-o-Y.

Gross production of natural gas during October was 3,111 MSCM which was lower by 1.6 per cent Y-o-Y. The cumulative gross production of natural gas of 21,271 MSCM in the current financial year till October 2024, higher by 1.1 per cent Y-o-Y.

On the other hand, India’s total natural gas consumption (including internal consumption) for October 2024 was 6,005 MSCM which was 4.2 per cent Y-o-Y higher. The cumulative consumption of 43,033 MSCM for April-October in FY25 was higher by 11.2 per cent Y-o-Y.

“Consumption of natural gas and LNG in India is on the rise, especially from the city gas sector, with government programs aiming to increase the number of compressed natural gas (CNG) stations to 18, 000 across the country by 2032,” Kpler said.

Looking ahead to 2025, India is expected to import 27 million tonnes (MT) of LNG, marking a 7 per cent Y-o-Y increase, it added.

“This growth is anticipated to be supported by a gradual increase in offshore gas production and the expansion of pipeline infrastructure to the northern regions. Notably, the 5 MTPA Dhamra LNG terminal is projected to see increased imports with the full completion of the Pradhan Mantri Urja Ganga pipeline,” Kpler explained.

India´s GAIL is also set to operate its 5 MTPA Dabhol LNG terminal at full capacity in 2025, boosted by the new breakwater facility infrastructure, which is set to be completed before next monsoon season.

“By Q2 2025, we should see the expansion of the largest LNG regasification terminal 17.5 MTPA Dahej to 22 MTPA capacity,” the noted agency said.

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