India was a net importer of steel for Q1FY25 (April to June) with shipments coming in exceeding exports by 0.6 million tonnes (mt). Export of finished steel continued to fall consistently – poor global demand and competition from China – all through the first three months of the fiscal, while there was a steady increase in imports.
In the year ago period, India was a net exporter of steel by 0.7 mt.
A Steel Ministry, accessed by businessline, said Q1FY25 finished steel imports stood at 1.9 mt, up 30 per cent y-o-y; as against 1.4 mt a year-ago. In comparison, exports stood at 1.3 mt , down 38 per cent y-o-y, against 2.1 mt in the year-ago-period.
On a sequential basis, steel imports in June stood at 0.55 mt, down 24 per cent over May when it stood at 0.72 mt. However, imports increased 14 per cent over the year-ago-period when it stood at 0.5 mt.
Exports last month stood at 0.34 mt, down 20 per cent sequentially over the 0.43 mt reported in May; and was down 32 per cent over June last year when it was 0.5 mt.
Incidentally, as per consultancy firm BigMint, Indian CRC offers to Europe were hovering in the $680 – 690 per tonne range (from India’s East Coast); while HRC offers there are expected to resume soon.
Asian and West Asian markets offers continue to be muted, with Chinese price quotations being in the $560/tonne range – lower than those quoted by Indian players.
“Imports in June was lower than May and it seems to be a good sign at the moment. But the bigger concern continues to be depressed exports. Global economic headwinds and cheaper Chinese products flooding key markets continue to impact orders.”
“We have been in touch with some concerned ministries on rising steel imports, specially from China; and those shipments of China being routed through Vietnam,” a Steel Ministry official said.
Imports impact domestic steel prices
Rising imports have impacted domestic steel prices.
As per BigMint, Indian flat steel producers reduced prices of hot rolled coils (HRCs) by around ₹1,000-1,750 per tonne ($12-21/t) starting July. The price reduction for cold rolled coils (CRCs) is around ₹1,000-1,500 per tonne ($12-18 / t).
“A few mills have also extended rebates around ₹500-750 / tonne ($6-9/t) for the June sales,” the report said.
Market sources say, HRC prices are in the ₹53,000 – 54,000 per tonne range, while CRC prices stood in the ₹60,000 – 61,000 per tonne bracket.
Finished steel production and demand
For the period of April-June, steel production (finished) registered a 7 per cent y-o-y increase. Production reached 35.77 mnt compared to 33.427 mt in the same period of the previous year.
On a sequential basis, finished steel production increased by 1.2 per cent in June to 12.1 mt in June as against 11.923 mt in May. The y-o-y growth was over 9 per cent, surpassing 11.1 mt in June 2023.
Finished steel consumption for Q1FY25 stood at around 35.4 mt, up 15 per cent y-o-y. It stood at 30.833 mt in the year-ago-period.
June finished steel consumption remained at May levels of 12 mt. Consumption grew y-o-y by 19 per cent over last year’s June month when it was around 10 mt.
“Domestic steel demand continues to be good; and consumption is on the higher side too. But cheap imports remain a concern and could have a negative impact on the prices here or market dynamics,” a market participant said.