With the revenue collections improving and the Centre unveiling growth oriented policies across various sectors, India’s aspiration to hit the 8-10 per cent growth target may be eminently achievable, according to Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
Referring to some ‘sporadic data’ which indicate that there is a significant recovery in growth, Jaitley observed that when the indirect revenue collection figures came out for the first quarter they did indicate that customs duty, excise duty, service tax, even without additional revenue measures, were up 14.5 per cent as compared to last year.
If one takes into account the additional revenue measures, including the excise increases on diesel and petrol, the increase in clean energy cess, the withdrawal of exemptions for motor vehicles and consumer durables, and the increase in service tax, then the indirect revenue collection was up 37 per cent to ₹1.54 lakh crore.
The silver lining in the revenue data was that the situation may be more comfortable compared to last year, Jaitley said at the 34th foundation day of the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development. “And therefore with the reform process ongoing, with some more significant changes like GST (Goods and Service Tax) in the pipeline, increased infrastructure spending this year, emphasis on smart cities, when all these initiatives take off then India’s aspiration to cross that 8 per cent growth hump and get on to the 8-10 per cent growth targets may be something that is eminently achievable,” the minister said. Pointing out that last year India clocked 7.3 per cent GDP growth and this year’s growth is projected at approximately 8 per cent, Jaitley said that by any global yardstick there seems to be some reason for Indians to smile.
While the world is passing through troubled times today, Jaitley felt that even in these challenging times India is being looked upon as a brighter spot.
Pinning hopes“India is well on track on a road map where our own fiscal deficit, our current account deficit, all broadly coming under control. Inflation is under control. “From the monsoon charts it appears that the rain gods may be kinder this year to us than they were last year. There are some basic reasons for satisfaction,” he said.
Agriculture growthJaitley observed that the big concern could be the lack of growth in agriculture sector. While services and manufacturing are seeing growth, even a 4 per cent average growth has not been achieved in the agriculture segment.
“And if a 4 per cent average growth in agriculture is what we have not been able to achieve, it is this very large section of the population (small and marginal farmers) which still lives in those hard conditions which the socio-economic census just now reflected. Productivity levels still are very low. Most farmers, 85 per cent plus, are small and marginal,” he said.
The challenges farmers face are higher input costs, low levels of irrigation, high levels of indebtedness, absence of an effective insurance mechanism, and impact of climate change.
On agriculture insurance, Jaitley said Dr Ashok Gulati, Infosys Chair Professor for Agriculture, ICRIER, has made a presentation to the finance ministry suggesting an effective insurance programme.
“Dr Gulati has come up with a doable and an effective insurance programme wherein the farmer at least is able to recover his basic inputs that he puts in the event of uncertainties created by more than one reason,” he said.