India, the world’s fourth largest crude oil refiner, will account for a major portion of the refinery runs in Asia Pacific (APAC), excluding China, in 2045.
Besides, long-term refining capacity increments in Other Asia-Pacific (excluding China) is estimated at 7.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), in line with strong demand growth. India is the single largest contributor to capacity additions in this region, OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2023 report said.
Runs, or the amount of crude oil that a refinery processes over a certain period of time, in India were close to their pre-pandemic levels in 2022, it added.
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The report projected that refinery runs in Asia-Pacific (excluding China) are forecast to increase by around 4.5 mb/d from 16.5 mb/d in 2022 to just above 21 mb/d in 2045.
“This is supported by strong demand growth, of which India accounts for around 60 per cent. Utilisation rates are set to peak at around 88.3 per cent in 2025, followed by a gradual decline to about 81.5 per cent in 2045, as new capacity comes online,” it added.
The report pointed out that there remains a trend for refining capacities to migrate from developed to developing regions, namely the Asia-Pacific, the West Asia and Africa.
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The three regions are set to accommodate the largest share of medium-term capacity additions, representing almost 90 per cent of the total. Strong demand growth, as well as rising product export strategies in these regions, are the major drivers behind this trend.
Capacity addition
India is expected to add as much as 56.6 million tonnes per annum of crude oil refining capacity in the next 7 years of which 84 per cent will be through brownfield expansion, while it will add 9 MTPA of refining capacity through greenfield expansion.
At present, the world’s third largest crude oil consumer has a cumulative refining capacity of almost 254 MTPA, or a little over 5 million barrels per day (mb/d).
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In FY23, Indian refineries processed 5.13 mb/d of crude oil, or 255.2 million tonnes (MT), against 4.85 mb/d or 241.7 MT. In August 2023, the crude pressed stood at 5.28 mb/d or 21.9 MT (provisional), while during April-August in FY24, the crude processed stood at 5.25 mb/d or 109.5 MT.
As of September 2023, India had a total crude oil transportation pipeline of 10,938 km with a capacity of 153.1 MTPA. The refined products transportation pipeline is 22,973 km with a capacity of 149.3 MTPA.
Ratnagiri refinery
The OPEC report said that India is also expanding its existing facilities and focusing on the petrochemical sector. The country’s target is to reach 9 mb/d of refining capacity by 2030.
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“The largest refinery project in India is the 1.2 mb/d plant in western Maharashtra, developed by Aramco and ADNOC and several Indian state-run companies. Due to recent land acquisition issues, however, the mega-project could be redesigned and consist of several smaller refineries,” it added.