India will add more cars than China in 20 years

High fuel costs notwithstanding, India is set to add more vehicles for every 1,000 people compared with China over the next two decades. This can be attributed to rapid economic development, industrialisation and ubranisation, according to BP Energy Outlook 2030 .

Estimates from domestic auto industry body SIAM showed that in January domestic passenger car sales grew 7.2 per cent to 1,96,013 units from 1,82,852 units in the same month last year.

BP's

Energy Outlook 2030 forecasts the vehicle density in India growing from 20 for every 1,000 people now to 65 by 2030, at an annualised growth of 6.7 per cent. But in China, the density will grow annually at 5.7 per cent, as the world's most populous country is projected to have 140 vehicles per 1,000 people, up from 50 now.

Though the transportation sector is expected to experience the slowest growth, in terms of fuel consumption at 26 per cent, according to BP, the global vehicle fleet is set to expand by 60 per cent to 1.6 billion units by 2030, with much of the growth happening in the developing countries.

The slower vehicle ownership growth in China reflects the impact of current and assumed future policies, designed to limit oil import dependency and congestion, including rising fuel taxation, widespread mass transportation options and relatively uneven income distribution.

The energy consumed by the transport sector will grow annually at 1.2 per cent till 2030, down from 1.9 per cent a year between 1999 and 2010. This decline is on account of improvements in fuel efficiency and the impact of high oil prices on driving behaviour, said Mr Christof Ruhl, Chief Group Economist, BP Plc.

vishwa@thehindu.co.in