Annual electric vehicle sales in India are expected to reach close to 20 million units by 2030 with bulk of the volumes contributed by electric two and three-wheelers.

“Growth in EV volumes will be driven by increased model availability, positive customer sentiments, and push by governments,” according to Kaushik Madhavan, Vice President, and Global Head - Consulting, Automotive and Transportation, MarketsandMarkets Research.

More than 90 per cent of the annual volumes are expected to be contributed by electric two- and three-wheeers by then. Electric two-wheeler sales are expected to grow from 0.6 million in 2022 to 0.8 million in 2023, 1.1 million in 2024, and 14.4 million in 2030. Annual electric three-wheeler sales are expected to touch 3.4 million, while electric car sales are projected to grow to 1.4 million by 2030.

Mass mobility, personal mobility, and shared mobility will drive electrification in India in the coming years, he said.

“While the recent FAME subsidy reduction has affected the electric two-wheeler sales, I feel it has a short-term impact. I hope the scenario will change and the volumes will bounce back. Electric 2W OEMs are now focussing on affordable electric two-wheelers for the Indian market after the cut in FAME II subsidy,” he added.

Madhavan said new business models were emerging in the electric mobility segment in India and localised aggregate development for EVs was reducing dependency on imports and driving in-house competencies and capabilities.

One of the important models is the establishment of Centres of Excellence for e-mobility solutions. EV OEMs across segments are investing in R&D for EV aggregates for domestic and export markets. Also, partnerships are being forged with technology start-ups and academic institutions for data analytics/predictive maintenance offerings.

The way forward is to focus on building capability and competency in India that will help develop affordable solutions specifically for the Indian customers, he said.

Other models include fleet electrification through institutional captive sales, partnerships with microfinance & NBFCs to aid the acquisition of electric two and three-wheelers in Tier 2 & 3 locations, and motor technology and segment cluster prioritisation.

Also, the circular economy is going to be an overarching factor in the e-mobility space. “The circularity of the entire value chain will be one of the key factors in driving investments in India as we go forward,” said Madhavan.

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