The average annual exponential growth of India’s population is on a downward trajectory and is expected to decline from 2.20 per cent in 1971 to 1 per cent in 2024, placing the national population in the range of 138-142 crore in 2024, according to SBI’s economic research department (ERD).
While the median age of India is expected to increase from 24 years in 2021 to 28-29 years in 2023/24, it remains one of the youngest nations in the world and is still below the global median age, per the ERD’s report, “Precursor to Census 2024: The Fine Prints of a Rapidly Changing Nation.”
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Adviser at the State Bank of India, observed that India fares quite well on this (median age) parameter compared to China, whose median age is now 39.5 years, up from 34.5 years in 2011.
He opined that the demographic dividend could be huge and a growth multiplier in the coming decade for India.
Referring to data on babies born (after adjusting for the infant mortality rate from total live birth), which also indicates that both North and East India are driving the overall population growth, the ERD said the Southern region’s growth in yearly births is declining steadily.
The working age population (15-59) has shown an increasing trend since 1971.
Furthermore, it is likely to increase to 65.2 per cent in the 2031 census, which bodes well for the country’s productivity as the emphasis on factors of production and the technological advancements created in the last decade accentuate growth across a multiverse of opportunities.
Interestingly, in 2024, the proportion of children in the age group of 0-14 years is projected to be 24.3 per cent, whereas it was 30.9 per cent in 2011, reflecting a continuing reversal of the trend that began in 1971, the ERD said.
On the other hand, the proportion of elderly persons has been steadily increasing since 1951 and is projected to reach 10.7 per cent in 2024, with a further increase to 13.1 per cent expected by 2031.
Up to the 34-year age bracket, the female percentage share in the overall population is expected to be higher than the male share in 2024, though it was the opposite in 2011. This clearly indicates better maternal and neonatal care, per the report.
Elderly population
The ERD estimated that in 2024, the elderly population will cross 15 crore (Female: 7.7 crore; Male: 7.3 crore), with a growth of 4.6 crore during 2011-2024. The share of the elderly population will be around 10.7 per cent in 2024 and is likely to further increase to 13.1 per cent in 2031.
During 2001-2011, there was an increase of more than 2.7 crore in the elderly population. As per the “Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036”, there were nearly 13.8 crore elderly persons in India in 2021, comprising 6.7 crore males and 7.1 crore females.
According to the aforementioned report, State-wise data on the elderly population of 21 major States reveal that Kerala has the highest proportion of elderly people in its population (16.5 per cent) followed by Tamil Nadu (13.6 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (13.1 per cent), Punjab (12.6 per cent), and Andhra Pradesh (12.4 per cent) in 2021.
On the contrary, their proportion is lowest in the States of Bihar (7.7 per cent), followed by Uttar Pradesh (8.1 per cent) and Assam (8.2 per cent).
Medical/tertiary care in the States would need a significant boost to cater to the demands of elderly people on lifestyle/medical grounds, the ERD said.
State-wise population growth
State-wise incremental share in total population growth reveals that the share of southern States, chiefly Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, in incremental population growth is set to decline (vis-à-vis 2011), while northern States, led by UP and Bihar (with a 33 per cent share in incremental growth), will drive the growth.
The northern and eastern regions together are expected to have a 52 per cent share of the entire population (51 per cent in 2011), while individually, the eastern and southern regions show a decline in share compared to numbers from over a decade ago.
Urbanisation
The decadal trends indicate a rapidly urbanising India. According to the 2011 census, India’s urban population was 31.1 per cent of the total population, which is expected to increase to 35-37 per cent in the 2024 census.
Furthermore, the share of the Indian population in urban agglomerations of more than 10 lakh has increased from 14.3 per cent in 2014 to 16.6 per cent in 2023.
Apart from the Union Territories, Goa and Kerala are highly urbanised. Among the major states, Tamil Nadu continues to be the most urbanised State, with 54 per cent of the population living in urban areas, followed by Maharashtra (48.8 per cent), which has the highest absolute number of persons living in urban areas.
Himachal Pradesh (10.3 per cent), followed by Bihar (12.4 per cent), Assam (15.7 per cent), and Orissa (19.0%) form the other end of the spectrum.
Due to the increase in the level of urbanisation, the number of million-plus (10 lakh) cities is increasing. From merely 18 cities in the 1991 census, it increased to 52 in the 2011 census.
The ERD believes that in the 2024 census, around 75-80 cities will have a million-plus population, each having its own challenges.