The pages in this year's Economic Survey are growing faster than the economy.
The number of pages was up by over 7.8 per cent in comparison to last year, compared to GDP growth projections of 6.9 per cent for last year and 7.6 per cent for this year.
But the Government's Chief Economic Adviser, Dr Kaushik Basu, is upbeat about growth prospects and is confident that India will soon be at the top of the growth league. Excerpts from his post-Survey press conference:
On growth prospects
It was a very difficult year for India.
The global situation is reflecting on the performance of our economy.
We estimate growth to be 7.6 per cent with change of 0.25 per cent in either direction. This is revival, but slow revival and still it is not where we were… Still, I will say ‘India's time has come'.
Growth drivers
Manufacturing will lead. Here the scope for improvement is very high. A small pick up in agriculture is expected to put it back to 4 per cent growth. Services are doing well and will continue to do well. Since the combined share of manufacturing and agriculture is less than 50 per cent in the GDP, the growth estimate has been kept around 7.5 per cent.
12th Five Year plan
The Planning Commission's projection of 9 per cent growth for the 12th Plan plan seems to be reasonable. However, the risk of surging crude prices is still very high. The economy has to grow at more than 9 per cent during the last three years of the 12th Plan (2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17) to achieve overall 9 per cent growth during the Plan period.
Inflation and RBI's policy stance
April inflation will be lesser, after that it will be sluggish. We expect inflation to be around 6.5 per cent for 2012-13. The Reserve Bank of India's stance, as announced on Thursday, seems to be on expected lines. It has not changed any thing, as it already cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) last week.
Disinvestment
We used the auction method for divesting shares in the Government-owned companies for the first time. It was on an experimental basis and there were some issues. Now, on the basis of experience, a better designed system will be there.
FDI in Multi-Brand Retail
Optimism about this is in my mind but not in the Survey. This is an important policy measure. It is worth going in this direction.
Lokpal
By creating another layer of bureaucracy to curb corruption, you create another kind of corruption. No matter how much regulation you put, checks on corruption all depend upon one's own feeling towards his or her social responsibility.
Land Acquisition and Labour Policy
Both of these have been mentioned in the Survey, but we feel some thing, in some form, can happen on land acquisition. A Bill is also in the Parliament. However, we feel labour reforms may not be possible.