The ongoing strike at Boeing will accentuate the capacity crisis for Indian carriers, aviation consultancy CAPA India said in its mid-year outlook for FY 2025 on Thursday

While the strike has impacted Akasa Air’s plans for the current financial year, it is likely to impact Air India Express growth in the next fiscal, CAPA India said.

Airbus deliveries, too, have been marginally lower than expectations and some delays have been witnessed.

In fact, between April and September Indian carriers received 53 Airbus and Boeing aircraft with deliveries averaging two per week.

Indian customers

Air India, Air India Express, Akasa Air and SpiceJet are the main operators of Boeing aircraft in India. While Air India Express has secured 34 Boeing 737 Max aircraft, originally built for Chinese carriers, deliveries to Akasa Air have slowed down.

While the consultancy expects Indian carriers to have a combined fleet of 806-811 aircraft by March 2025 in line with its earlier projection this year, it will be due to slightly higher induction by Air India and IndiGo. CAPA India had estimated Akasa Air to have a fleet of 31 aircraft by next March and now has lowered it to 25-26.

Akasa Air received three aircraft in CY 2024 and expects delivery of one more over the next few days. The airline management has earlier said it is the fastest growing airline in the history of civil aviation but has refused to give its own capacity and growth guidance

On a positive side, the number of grounded aircraft could see a reduction to 120 next March from 150 on a year-on-year basis. This would be due to marginal improvement in supply of engines and ungrounding of SpiceJet aircraft following the recent fund infusion.

Traffic growth & profit

CAPA India has maintained its traffic growth and profit guidance for FY25. Domestic and international passenger traffic is expected to grow 6-8 per cent on domestic routes (to 162-165 million ) and 9-11 per cent on international routes (to 75-78 million).

While the overall industry loss forecast for current fiscal remains constant at $400-600 million, the mix will be different. Air India’s financial performance is expected to be better and low cost airlines will make a smaller profit than expected.

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