Bullet train will be daunting project, say experts

The ₹98,000-crore bullet train project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad will be a challenge to implement, say transportation experts.

An estimate by rating agency SMERA pegs the cost at $28 million per kilometre (including rolling stock and construction), if 6,000 km of high-speed rail network were to be laid in the next 10 years and this includes the Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor.

The officials are yet to be assigned specific responsibilities, according to sources at Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd, the parent company of High Speed Rail Corporation of India Ltd. Two or three different options on the alignment of the Ahmedabad-Mumbai corridor are still being studied, sources said.

Experts say such projects require a person of stature such as E Sreedharan, who piloted the Konkan Railway and the Delhi Metro projects.

Retired World Bank transportation specialist Arun Mokashi said, “The lead project manager should be a man who can think beyond engineering and understand the complex dynamics of transportation economics. A detailed mathematical simulation needs to be carried out so that all the parameters are quantified, helping in setting the project priorities. The project cost appears to be big and there is fear that the rail fare may equal air fare.”

Other issues flagged by Mokashi include need for trained manpower and the complexities involved in the transfer of technology between two countries.

The topography of Mumbai is also a challenge in itself, say experts. Arun Kejriwal, founder of KRIS Research, said, “The real challenge would be to get the train into Mumbai. The entry into Mumbai is through Vaitarna, Virar and Vasai (3Vs). One is a seismically active zone, the other a river and the third a busy suburban terminus for railways with a deity on a hillock on its eastern side. And not to forget the overlap which the bullet train alignment would have with the dedicated freight corridor. Japanese ingenuity in surmounting these challenges will be tested.”

For the land-starved Mumbai city, laying of an underground section for a specific stretch could also be considered, said transportation expert Sudhir Badami.

Coprorates are watching the initiative closely.

SN Subrahmanyan, Deputy Managing Director and President of Engineering at bellwether Larsen & Toubro, said at a recent press conference that the bullet train project was a complicated and costly project.

Worldwide, a bullet train moves at a speed upwards of 350 km/hr but for the Indian project, it is 225 to 250 km/hr, which is also a fairly high speed.

For this speed to be attained, a key requirement is an access controlled corridor. Such a corridor would have to be built on an elevated platform. It would require proper analysis of the route and making a programme to acquire the land. It will take some time to acquire the land, get environmental clearances and carry out impact studies, Subrahmanyan said.

“We are hopeful because these are the kind of projects, which take the economy and the nation to the next level. It is some time away but it is a good project to have,” he said

There are contrarian views on whether the bullet train project will boost employment generation.

Sankar Chakraborti, CEO, SMERA Ratings, said, “The project will have far-reaching effects in terms of technology diffusion across the value chain, helping India take an immense leap. The initiative will have a ripple effect on the MSME sector, strengthening India’s capabilities in line with the Make in India plan”

SMERA has assessed that collectively 28 per cent of India’s MSMEs operating in sectors such as special purpose machinery, fabricated metal products and printing among others will be directly or indirectly influenced by this mega project.

However, independent transportation expert Sudhir Badami differs. “A mega project with its gigantic investment needs to be analysed from employment generation perspective. As the technology will be provided by the Japanese companies, Indian companies cannot contribute much in that space. Even in designing of the project, the scope for local companies would be limited. We are going in for a bullet train project under the name of modernisation. But we need to remember that modernisation does not mean just showing off a multi-billion dollar project. The massive costs need to be considered.”

Litigation is also a major concern.

“The legal aspects needs to covered from all sides otherwise litigations over land issues will delay the project. If need be, legislation should be passed by Parliament or State legislatures. It should be kept in mind that making new laws is a long and tedious process,” Mokashi added.