India can produce 8-10 million tonnes (mt) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by FY40 for which investments worth ₹6–7 lakh crore, or roughly $70–85 billion, would be required.
Deloitte India in its report on SAF noted that this will give impetus to the aviation sector’s decarbonisation efforts, reducing carbon emissions to 20–25 mt annually.
The report indicates that an 8–10 mt production would surpass India’s estimated domestic demand of 4.5 MT for a 15 per cent blending mandate in 2040 across all flights. It could also position India as a leading SAF exporter serving global markets.
The projected capital investment of ₹6–7 lakh crore will result in a substantial socio-economic impact, creating between 1.1 and 1.4 million jobs across the value chain and reducing crude oil import bills by $5–7 billion annually.
Further, SAF production can boost farmers’ income by 10–15 per cent by using agricultural residue as feedstock, providing a sustainable alternative to the current practice of burning crop waste.
“The confluence of abundant feedstock, technological innovation and policy alignment presents an immediate opportunity to meet our blending mandates and serve global demand. The challenge now is to move swiftly, turning strategic vision into practical solutions that deliver long-term environmental and economic value,” Deloitte South Asia Partner and Sustainability and Climate Leader Viral Thakker said.
According to Deloitte’s, India’s estimated surplus of 230 mt of agricultural residue will be a crucial resource for producing SAF. This surplus will serve as a vital feedstock for ethanol (2G) production, a key component in the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) technology pathway for SAF manufacturing.
At the same time, AtJ route with ethanol (1G) produced from sugar and grain can provide an initial boost until the technology fully matures. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) and used cooking oil (UCO) will contribute to the overall potential. Alternate feedstock such as sweet sorghum, seaweed and industrial waste can give further impetus to SAF potential with technological maturity.
Deloitte India Partner Prashanth Nutula said “With a 2–3 per cent share in the global ATF market, India is favourably positioned in the global aviation fuel market, including SAF. Moreover, India also emerges as a competitive geography due to its proximity to airline hubs in the Middle East and Europe and favourable cost structures. As a result, India is poised to play a pivotal role as global demand for SAF surges.”
Successful adoption of SAF will require collective interventions from all the ecosystem stakeholders. Establishing a clear and long-term demand roadmap, such as Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO), will foster interest and stimulate early investments, even when technologies are not commercially viable. SAF facilities will require a stable and reliable supply of feedstock.