Planes, Trains and Automobiles is a 1987 leisure film that hilariously depicts the journey of an executive stranded with a talkative companion and forced to explore multiple modes of transportation.

Airplanes emit more carbon in the triad of planes, trains and automobiles, while trains offer a cleaner alternative with 70 per cent fewer emissions. According to a study by David S Lee and others, aviation contributes 2.5 per cent of global carbon emissions and to other environmental issues like radiative forcing. Hence, France enacted laws curbing short-haul flights, and Sweden introduced the term “Flygskam” to shame flight travellers for their carbon footprint.

Europe plans to double its high-speed rail (HSR) usage by 2030. To achieve net-zero operations by 2050, the international air transport association emphasises decarbonising measures such as fuel efficiency, fleet renewal and sustainable aviation fuel.

Meanwhile, India is rapidly modernising aviation infrastructure, constructing new airports, ordering hundreds of new aircraft and parallelly introducing semi-high-speed trains like the Vande Bharat and high-speed bullet trains. If the rail network achieves incredible speed, it could have an impact on the aviation business.

While teaching the concept of “Marketing Myopia” in MBA classrooms, one classic textbook example we give is about railroads losing business to airlines in 1960s America without understanding the scope of business based on the passenger needs.

The aviation industry needs to avoid the reverse in India and adapt to the potential impact of HSR on short-haul domestic sectors. The collision between HSR and short-haul aviation represents a “Grey Rhino” event—a highly probable, high-impact risk that is often ignored until a crisis occurs. Michele Wucker introduced this term in the book “The Gray Rhino: How to Recognise and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore”, in which events such as file-sharing impacting the traditional business model of the music industry and the Lehman Brothers crash were recalled.

One of the major reasons the domestic-market-focused Italian airlines Alitalia folded up was the comparatively ‘superior customer value’ created by the high-speed trains. According to a study by Regina RL Clewlow and others, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the origin-destination traffic between Frankfurt-Stuttgart and Frankfurt-Cologne has reduced after the arrival of HSR.

Train travel vs air travel

In Indian aviation, with new airports going farther away from the metros, city-centre-to-city-centre high-speed rail connectivity could pull more short-haul air passengers to the trains. In the Air travel time (home-to-airport, check-in, security checks, tarmac buses, flying, baggage claim, destination airport to home) vs Rail-travel time (Home to station, boarding, travel, destination station to home) competition, HSR will have a significant competitive advantage in the short-haul routes. Clean, sleek and technologically advanced, Wi-Fi-enabled train-sets due to Atma Nirbhar and Swachh Bharat efforts, and the development of world-class railway stations in India will attract short-haul business and leisure travellers seeking a comfortable and productive journey. There will be competition from expressways too.

Added to this is the increasing anxiety and awareness concerning carbon emissions. Short-haul sectors in the immediate HSR impact zone are Delhi- Chandigarh, Jaipur, Chennai-Coimbatore and Bengaluru. Additionally, the rising competition within the industry adds pressure to adapt and innovate. A futuristic hybrid solution could exist in air to high-speed rail feeder connectivity like the Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport TGV station in France.

Short-haul trains will have cost, time, convenience and sustainability advantages. Aviation players must invest in sustainability efforts and revamp business models to effectively navigate the grey rhino challenges.

(R Sathyanarayanan is Sundram Fasteners Associate Professor of Marketing, IFMR Graduate School of Business – Krea University.)