A steep decline in the number of tankers entering a vital Red Sea conduit suggests that attacks on ships in the area are further disrupting a key artery of global trade.

So far this week, only about 30 tankers, including crude oil and fuel carriers, have entered the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which lies at the sea’s southern end, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s equivalent to a drop of more than 40% versus the daily average over the previous three-weeks.  

Less well-known than the Suez Canal at the other end of the Red Sea, the strait between Yemen and Africa is almost as crucial. Massive volumes of crude, diesel and other petroleum products from the Middle East and India are hauled through these waters on their way to Europe. Russian oil to India and China heads the other way. 

The Red Sea crisis is interfering with world trade, with container vessels already sailing round Africa to avoid the area. Yemen’s Houthi militants have vowed to continue targeting ships, despite a US move to compile an international naval task force to protect shipments.

To be sure, vessel-tracking provides only a broad picture of how trade is being affected. The figures, which are for oil and chemical tankers, include vessels that aren’t carrying cargo. And shippers may not show up if they’ve turned off their AIS signal equipment, which is allowed for security reasons, according to guidance from industry group Bimco and others.

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Nevertheless, it provides an early look at how trade through the region is being affected. Separate tracking data point to the same phenomenon: the STI Solidarity, carrying petroleum product, was sailing toward Suez — but after idling off the coast of Oman for a few days, is now heading in the direction of the Cape of Good Hope.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

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