With the revenue situation turning more comfortable and the reform process ongoing, India's aspiration to cross the 8 per cent growth hump and get on to the 8-10 per cent growth target may be eminently achievable, according to Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
Referring to some 'sporadic data' which indicate that there is a significant recovery (in growth), Jaitley observed that when the indirect revenue collection figures came out (on Friday) for the first quarter they did indicate that customs duty, excise duty, service tax, even without additional revenue measures, were up 14.5 per cent as compared to last year.
If one takes into account the additional revenue measures then the indirect revenue collection was up 37 per cent.
The silver lining in that (data) was that the revenue situation may be more comfortable with all these measures compared to last year, Jaitley said at the 34th foundation day of the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development.
"And therefore with the reform process ongoing, with some more significant changes like GST (Goods and Service Tax) in the pipeline, increased infrastructure spending this year, emphasis on smart cities, when all these intiatives get down to the field then India's aspiration to cross that 8 per cent growth hump and get on to the 8-10 per cent growth targets may besomething that is not out of sight, something which may be eminently achievable," the minister said.
Pointing out that last year India clocked 7.3 per cent GDP growth and this year's growth is projected at approximately 8 per cent, Jaitley said that by any global yardstick there seems to be some reason for Indians to smile.
Agriculture: a cause for concern
Jaitley observed that whereas we speak in terms of double digit growth in services, a much higher growth in manufacturing, a 4 per cent average in agriculture is something which we have not been able to achieve.
"And if a 4 per cent average (growth in agriculture) is what we have not been able to achieve, it is this very large section of the population (small and marginal farmers) which still lives in those hard conditions which the socio-economic census just now reflected.
"Productivity levels still are very low. Most farmers, 85 per cent plus, are small and marginal," he said.
The challenges farmers face with regard to the problems to be addressed are higher input costs, low levels of irrigation, high levels of indebtedness, absence of an effective insurance mechanism, and impact of climate change (the recent hailstorm itself was an example which really adversely impacted the farmers).
On agriculture insurance, Jaitley said Dr Ashok Gulati, Infosys Chair Professor for Agriculture, ICRIER, has made a presentation to the finance ministry suggesting an effective insurance programme.
"Dr Gulati has come up with a doable and an effective insurance programme wherein the farmer at least is able to recover his basic inputs that he puts in the event of uncertainties created by more than one reason," he said.