As the NDA government completes two years in office, a normal monsoon could lift its hopes for a further improvement in economic performance and boost farm sector growth to at least six per cent in 2016-17.

“This year if the monsoon is normal in terms of quantity and distribution, my own estimate is agriculture growth will be more than six per cent,” said Ramesh Chand, agriculture expert and Member, NITI Aayog.

This will be a significant fillip from the projected gross value addition of 1.1 per cent in the agriculture sector in 2015-16. A clearer picture of farm sector growth will be available on May 31, when the Central Statistics Office releases the fourth quarter growth estimates as well as the provisional annual estimates for 2015-16.

Chand said a normal monsoon will bring in more area under cultivation and increase farm sector productivity.

“Almost three per cent area could not be brought under crop cultivation. With normal rainfall, we will be able to bring it under crop cultivation,” he told BusinessLine .

Crop intensity too will improve, he said, adding that normal rainfall will allow farmers to go for a second crop or high value crops. “With poor rainfall, they go for coarse grain,” he said. Though the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted a slight delay in the onset of the monsoon over Kerala, the government is banking on its projection of a normal or above normal monsoon to lift up economic growth and boost agriculture income. The projection comes after two straight years of poor rains. While the government has pegged economic growth at between 7 per cent and 7.5 per cent this fiscal, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had said good rains can push up growth to 8.5 per cent.

Drought situation Chand also said the government has been taking a number of steps to tackle the drought situation and States too have to implement measures. “The drought we are facing this year is unique — not only have we had two successive monsoon deficits but there have been aberrations even in the non-monsoon rains,” he said. Short-term relief measures are being taken, while the medium term goal is to harness water resources and improve irrigation.

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