Met Dept forecasts a ‘normal’ monsoon

The Narendra Modi-led government, which will seek a fresh electoral mandate within a year, received positive news on the weather front, with the official Met Department on Monday forecasting a normal monsoon — for the third straight year.

The rainfall from the South-West monsoon is expected to be around 97 per cent of the long period average of 89 centimetres, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director-General KJ Ramesh told mediapersons here. There is “very less probability” of having deficient rains this year, he said.

Having three good monsoons consecutively will certainly help rainfed areas, which constitute 52 per cent of the total farmland, said Ashok Dalwai, CEO of National Rainfed Area Authority. “It helps to retain soil moisture in a sustainable manner, helping increase productivity,” he said. “This is really good news for farmers who lack irrigation facilities,” he added.

As per the probability forecasts prepared by IMD, the chances of having a deficient monsoon that is less than 90 per cent of the LPA is a lowly 14 per cent. LPA is the average of annual South-West monsoon rainfall received between 1950 and 2001. On other hand, the combined probability of getting a normal (between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA) and above normal (between 104 per cent and 110 per cent LPA) is 54 per cent, the IMD data showed.

Implications for inflation

Getting a good monsoon this year will be crucial for the government as it will begin its campaign for the 2019 election. With retail inflation hovering around 4-5 per cent and bumper foodgrain production in the past two years, yet another good monsoon will positively influence the rural economy.

“A normal monsoon is crucial to push economic growth, which slowed last year under the lingering impact of demonetisation and disruptions due to implementation of the Goods and Services Tax, both of which impacted private consumption demand as well as exports,” said a Crisil Research statement. The bountiful rains will not only mean good, if not better, food production, but will help recharge reservoirs, which are showing faster depletion. As of April 12, water storage at 91 major reservoirs in the country stood at 84 per cent of what is considered normal, compared with 90 per cent for the same period last year.

Aditi Nayar, principal economist at rating agency ICRA, said: “The weak precipitation in the post-monsoon and winter seasons in the last financial year resulted in a considerable year-on-year decline in reservoir levels. Therefore, a normal monsoon is important to rebuild reservoir and ground water levels and support yields.”.

Both Crisil and ICRA expect agricultural growth during the current fiscal to be around 3-3.5 per cent. “As of now, we expect agricultural GVA growth to be modest at 3-3.5 per cent in the current financial year, if the temporal and spatial distribution of the monsoon is normal,” said Nayar of ICRA. There will be greater clarity when IMD comes out with its second-stage monsoon forecast in June, Ramesh said. Apart from quantifying the probable rainfall in July and August, which are crucial for sowing, the Met Department will predict the rainfall to be received by the four homogenous regions in the country. The date of onset of the monsoon will be announced in May.