India is likely to clock a GDP growth of 5.5 per cent during the current financial year provided there is a normal monsoon and a stable Government at the Centre, says a D&B report.
The research firm further said if agriculture output suffers because of a possible El Nino effect, GDP growth would be revised downwards.
“Assuming a normal monsoon and a stable Government at the Centre, D&B expects GDP to record an average growth of 5.5 per cent during FY15 as against an estimated 4.7 per cent growth in FY14,” Dun & Bradstreet India Senior Economist Arun Singh said.
However, if the risk to agriculture output from the possible El Nino phenomena materialises, the forecast to the GDP would have to be revised downwards, he added.
According to D&B, growth is likely to recover only “moderately” in the current financial year, 2014-15, owing to sluggish investment activity, an unhealthy fiscal situation, and policy and administrative uncertainty that is likely to contain growth numbers in the first half, while the second half looks promising.
Improved private consumption and a renewed pickup in investment activity towards the second half of FY15 could facilitate growth in the second half of the fiscal.
“An improved policy environment, revival of large stalled projects cleared by the Cabinet Committee of Investments (CCI) along with some revival in demand conditions are expected to provide an impetus to growth,” Singh said.
However, much of this economic change would be contingent on the installation of a stable Government with a strong reform agenda, Singh added.
The service sector is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in FY15 from an estimated 6.8 per cent in FY14, while the industrial sector will grow by 2.8 per cent in FY15 from an expected growth of 0.6 per cent in FY14, the report said.